COMMODITY MARKETS IN 2025: METALS

COMMODITY MARKETS IN 2025: METALS

Date: February 13, 2025

TREND EXPECTATIONS: UP

• CENTRAL BANKS’ MONETARY POLICY SHIFT: Lower Interest Rates Expected Across the Board in 2025

METALS (GOLD, SILVER, PALLADIUM, PLATINUM, COPPER): The commodity prices depend heavily on Central Banks’ interest rates. When interest rates fall in the US, the commodity prices denominated in US Dollars (Gold, Silver, Palladium, Platinum, Copper) become lower as lower interest rates push the value of the US dollar down. Lower prices, naturally, increase demand for the commodity, causing higher prices thereafter. Therefore, with lower interest rates in 2025, especially in the US, one could expect higher commodity prices in 2025. US FEDERAL RESERVE: The US Federal Reserve has already begun its latest interest rate cut cycle (September 18, 2024), bringing down its benchmark interest rates from the previous 5.5% to the current 4.50%. The Fed expects to cut rates at least two more times in 2025, which could bring the benchmark rates to at least 4% by the end of 2025.

• GEOPOLITICAL RISKS: Middle East Tensions, Ukraine-Russia Conflict, China-Taiwan Tensions, North Korea Nuclear Weapon Development

METALS (GOLD, SILVER): US President Donald Trump has recently ordered “Maximum Pressure” to be put on Iran in order to make sure that Iran is not going to be able to develop nuclear weapon any longer. In addition to that, the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia continued to keep investors nervous across the markets as both Ukraine and Russia are grand producers of commodities such as Palladium, Copper, Platinum, Gold etc. North Korea will continue to be a threat with its nuclear weapon development. China once again said they will not allow Taiwan to separate from mainland China, which increases the chances for an intervention. Geopolitical tensions increase demand for safe-haven instruments such as Gold and Silver, but also other commodities as a warring environment causes scarcity fears.

• GEOPOLITICAL RISKS: Trade War 2.0

METALS (GOLD, SILVER): US President Donald Trump has started a new episode of the trade war (after the one in 2018) with China by imposing 10% tariffs on Chinese products, while China retaliated by imposing 10% - 15% tariffs on some US products. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump imposed 25% on aluminum and steel to all countries. US President Donald Trump has also pledged reciprocal tariffs to all countries that have tariffs in place against US products. Trade war tensions tend to increase uncertainties ahead, which pushes investors toward safe-haven instruments such as Gold and Silver.

• CHINA’S ONGOING ECONOMIC RECOVERY: More Stimulus To Come In 2025

METALS (PALLADIUM, PLATINUM, COPPER): China is the largest Palladium, Platinum and Copper consumer in the world. The Chinese economy is expected to grow by around 5% in 2025 after a similar GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth rate in 2024. China is expected to invest in more infrastructure projects in 2025, as Chinese authorities have already announced multi-billion dollars of stimulus packages, with more to come in 2025, meaning that more commodities are expected to rise in demand as China comes back economically.

SELECTED COMMODITY MARKET 2025

• GOLD Current Price: $2,903

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units

• SILVER Current Price: $32.20

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10.000 units

• PALLADIUM Current Price: $990

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units

• PLATINUM Current Price: $1,050

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

2. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units

• COPPER Current Price: $4.685

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10.000 units

2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:40 (GMT) 13/02/2025

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
• Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.