Crude Oil weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- CRUDE OIL PRICE HIT ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE FEBRUARY 2021 ($55.115): Crude oil prices have fallen to their lowest in more than four years to hit the level of 55.115 on April 9.
- LONG-TERM SUPPORT AREA BELOW THE PSYCHOLOGICAL MARK OF $60: Crude oil price has recently tested levels below $60, which has been acting as a support area since early 2021.
GRAPH (Daily): February 2021 – April 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
OIL PRICE ANALYSIS (DRILLING NEW WELLS): U.S.A.
- LARGE FIRM PRODUCERS (ABOVE 10,000 barrels a day) NEED AN AVERAGE OF $58 A BARREL MARKET PRICE TO PROFITABLY DRILL. This is the average price of oil for larger (firm) oil producers to be profitable drilling new oil wells.
- SMALL FIRM PRODUCERS (LESS THAN 10,000 barrels a day) NEED AN AVERAGE OF $67 A BARREL MARKET PRICE TO PROFITABLY DRILL. This is the average price of oil for smaller (firm) oil producers to be profitable drilling new oil wells.
- AVERAGE BREAKEVEN PRICE ACROSS REGIONS (FOR NEW WELL DRILLING): $59 - $70. This is the average price range of oil across various regions in the US for firms to be profitable drilling new oil wells.
Source: dallasfed.org
GEOPOLITICS:
- BREAKING (APRIL 9): US PRESIDENT TRUMP SUSPENDED RECIPROCAL TARIFFS ON THE REST OF THE WORLD BY 90 DAYS. For the next 90 days, the US will charge countries that are part of the reciprocal tariff plan only 10%, compared to the range of up to 84% previously planned, as it gives time and space other countries to begin and reach new trade deals with the USA. More than 70 countries have already contacted the US administration to begin talks soon. This has significantly reduced global recession fears.
- MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS RISE AS US TRUMP’S “ULTIMATUM” TO IRAN APPROACHES ITS DEADLINE (Early to Mid- May). According to Reuters, President Trump's letter to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei included a two-month deadline (until early to mid-May) for reaching a new nuclear deal. In addition, Trump threatened bombing Iran if Iran do not make a deal on nuclear program. These developments increased chances for a potential military action in the Middle East, rich in oil, and responsible for 20% to 30% of total global supply.
EVENTS (OIL):
- MONDAY, APRIL 14 AT 12:40 GMT+1: OPEC OIL MONTHLY REPORT. The report is expected to include the OPEC’s demand and supply outlook for global oil markets in 2025. It could create volatility in oil prices, if OPEC announces changes in their global oil demand and supply estimates for the coming period in 2025.
- TUESDAY, APRIL 15 AT 09:00 GMT+1: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY (IEA) OIL MONTHLY REPORT. The report is expected to include the agency’s demand and supply outlook for global oil markets in 2025.
- TUESDAY, APRIL 15 AT 21:30 GMT+1: AMERICAN PETROLEUM INSTITUTE (API) WEEKLY OIL INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the oil price could be expected.
- WEDNESDAY, APRIL 16 AT 15:30 GMT+1: ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION (EIA) WEEKLY OIL INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the oil price could be expected.
Crude Oil, April 10, 2025
Current Price: 60.50
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
Trend direction |
|
75 |
|
70 |
|
65 |
|
56 |
|
55 |
|
54 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
Crude Oil |
||||||
Pivot Points |
||||||
Profit or loss in $ |
14,500 |
9,500 |
4,500 |
-4,500 |
-5,500 |
-6,500 |
Profit or loss in €² |
13,128 |
8,601 |
4,074 |
-4,074 |
-4,980 |
-5,885 |
Profit or loss in £² |
11,264 |
7,380 |
3,496 |
-3,496 |
-4,273 |
-5,049 |
Profit or loss in C$² |
20,415 |
13,375 |
6,336 |
-6,336 |
-7,743 |
-9,151 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 12:00 (GMT+1) 10/04/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop techniques could protect the profit.