GOLD weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: US PRESIDENT- ELECT DONALD TRUMP TAKES OFFICE ON JANUARY 20, 2025
- US PRESIDENT-ELECT DONALD TRUMP IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE PRESSURE ON IRAN AFTER HE TAKES OFFICE ON JANUARY 20, 2025. Earlier reports would also suggest that Trump could allow the US army to conduct airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities as fears and concerns have grown that Iran is approaching capacity to produce a nuclear weapon. This could see a surge in Middle East tensions, which could, on the other hand, increase demand for the safe- haven Gold.
- TRADE WAR: President Trump has on several occasions said that he will increase tariffs on countries that have trade surpluses with the US, including Canada, Mexico, China and the European Union. This will increase global economic uncertainties, which in turn, could increase demand for the safe- haven Gold. His final decision on new tariffs will come on February 1st.
- STATISTICS: GOLD ROSE 10.85% DURING TRUMP’S FIRST YEAR OF PRESIDENCY (JANUARY 20, 2017 – JANUARY 20, 2018). In addition, Gold rose 55.38% during the entire first presidential term of Donald Trump (January 20, 2017 – January 20, 2021)
Data Source: MetaTrader 4 Platform
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
GEOPOLITICS
- DAVOS WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM TO TAKE PLACE FROM JANUARY 20th to 24th. The forum begins on Monday, January 20 until Friday, January 24. The Davos event will attract more than 3,000 business and political leaders. They will include 900 company chairs and chief executives along with 60 heads of state. It takes place each year in January in Davos, Switzerland.
- US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP IS EXPECTED TO GIVE A SPEECH IN DAVOS ON JANUARY 23rd. The markets are likely to respond to any hints of Trump’s future policies. If his speech is filled with uncertainties and hostilities gold price will be supported. On average the price of gold has risen around 2% each time Trump held a speech in Davos.
EVENTS:
- THURSDAY, JANUARY 23, AT 13:30 GMT: U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: A higher than expected number is supportive for gold, while it increases the odds of an interest rate cut for the FED. This measures the number of individuals who have filed for unemployment insurance in the past week. The expected number is 221K unemployment filings.
- FRIDAY, JANUARY 24, AT 14:45 GMT: U.S. MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX (PMI): If the index comes below 50 it signals a contraction in the manufacturing sector, which increases the odds of an interest rate cut from the FED. This index measures the level of activity of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. The forecasted index is 48.3.
- FRIDAY, JANUARY 24, AT 15:00 GMT: U.S. MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT: A lower than expected reading should be supportive for gold, because it increases the odds of an interest rate cut by the FED. The forecasted number is 73.2.
- WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 29, AT 19:00 GMT: FED INTEREST RATE DECISION: As of January 16, the FED is projecting high chances rates will remain unchanged at the current 4.50%. Currently the FED is expecting two rate cuts in 2025.
ANALYSTS’ OPINION:
Bank |
Price target |
Goldman Sachs |
$3,000 |
UBS |
$2,900 |
CITIGROUP |
$3000 |
BANK OF AMERICA |
$3000 |
GOLD, January 22, 2025
Current Price: 2750
GOLD |
Weekly |
Trend direction |
|
3000 |
|
2900 |
|
2800 |
|
2700 |
|
2675 |
|
2650 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
Pivot Points |
||||||
Profit or loss in $ |
25,000 |
15,000 |
5,000 |
-5,000 |
-7,500 |
-10,000 |
Profit or loss in €2 |
23,988 |
14,393 |
4,798 |
-4,798 |
-7,196 |
-9,595 |
Profit or loss in £2 |
20,277 |
12,166 |
4,055 |
-4,055 |
-6,083 |
-8,111 |
Profit or loss in C$2 |
35,962 |
21,577 |
7,192 |
-7,192 |
-10,789 |
-14,385 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 12:15 (GMT) 22/01/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.