LUFTHANSA (#LHA.DE) weekly special report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL AIRLINES MARKETS:
- In 2024, the aviation market is projected to see significant growth, with net profits expected to reach $25.7 billion and revenues to grow by 7.6% to $964 billion. Passenger traffic is anticipated to return to 2019 levels and then grow at an average rate of 3% annually. The global airlines market, valued at $346.81 billion in 2023, is forecasted to exceed $473 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 3.53%. The Asia-Pacific region, which has nearly recovered to pre-pandemic capacity levels, is expected to contribute substantially to global air traffic growth. (Source: International Air Transportation Association)
LUFTHANSA: THE COMPANY
- Lufthansa is the largest airliner in Germany and the second largest in Europe by passengers, right behind Ryanair. In 2023, Ryanair had around 182 million passengers, while Lufthansa served 123 million passengers. Lufthansa has the largest fleet of airplines in the world with more than 100,000 staff across its operations. Lufthansa is still the largest ailrline company in Europe by revenue, and the fourth largest by revenue in the wolrd (behind American Airlines, Delta Airlines, United Airlines).
ANALYSIS AND EVENTS:
- EVENT (WEDNESDAY, JULY 31, PREMARKET): Q2 EARNINGS REPORT. The company is expected to print 9.97 billion euros in revenue, up 34.9% from the first quarter of 2024 (7.39 Billion euros). In addition to that, the company is expected to report 528.6 million euros in profit for Q2, up from Q1’s loss of 734 million dollars.
- JULY 26 - AUGUST 11: PARIS OLYMPIC GAMES. The Olympics take place once in four years, and the 2024 games will be organized by Paris (France). The event should spur a greater amount of travelling across Europe and beyond, as it represents a global event.
- MAY 27 - SEPTEMBER 2: TRAVEL SEASON IN THE USA. The traveling season has already started in the US, but it goes the same for the rest of the northern hemisphere as the summer period hits the same period. In the US this year 82% of population is expected to get on at least one trip, equal to more than 300 million people.
PRICE ACTION:
- ANALYSTS OPINIONS: HSBC: EUR 8.50, Barclays: EUR 8.00, RBC Capital: EUR 7.50, Goldman Sachs: EUR 7.00.
- STOCK PRICE ACTION: Lufthansa hit its most recent high in March 2023 of EUR 11.04. The stock currently trades around EUR 5.70 which is around 48% below its recent high of EUR 11.04. If a full recovery follows, the stock could potentially increase around 94%. However, the price could also decline further.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- STRONG SUPPORT AT EUR 5: The Lufthansa stock has maintained strong support of EUR 5 since 1994. The stock last traded near EUR 5 in 2020, when lockdowns started taking place globally.
- STATISTICS: RECOVERY TO EUR 9 AFTER TESTING EUR 5 OR NEAR. The chart below shows us that the Lufthansa stock tends to recover up towards the mark of EUR 9, at least, every time the stock hits first the mark of EUR 5. That has been the case since 1994.
GRAPHS: Lufthansa Stock (1994 - 2024)
Source: Bloomberg Terminal
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
Lufthansa, July 16, 2024
Current Price: 5.70
|
Lufthansa |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
11.00 |
|
|
9.00 |
|
|
7.00 |
|
|
5.00 |
|
|
4.80 |
|
|
4.60 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
LUFTHANSA |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $2 |
57,654 |
35,898 |
14,142 |
-7,615 |
-9,790 |
-11,966 |
|
Profit or loss in € |
53,000 |
33,000 |
13,000 |
-7,000 |
-9,000 |
-11,000 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
44,527 |
27,725 |
10,922 |
-5,881 |
-7,561 |
-9,242 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
78,962 |
49,165 |
19,368 |
-10,429 |
-13,409 |
-16,388 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 14:00 (GMT+1) 16/07/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.