USD/JPY Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
US TARIFFS AND TARIFF POLICY: TRADE WAR
- RECIPROCAL TARIFFS SUSPENDED BY 90 DAYS: US PRESIDENT TRUMP SUSPENDED THEIR RECIPROCAL TARIFFS ON THE REST OF THE WORLD BY 90 DAYS.
- TRADE NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN THE U.S. AND JAPAN HAVE BEGUN (APRIL 16): US President Donald Trump himself joined the talks on April 16, showing how important it is to him and the USA to get a new trade deal with Japan. According to the Associated Press, Donald Trump attended the meeting alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, top economic advisers with a central role in his trade and tariff policies.
GEOPOLITICS: U.S. INSTITUTIONAL RISK
- US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP THREATENS FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL AND FEDERAL RESERVE’S INDEPENDENCE. U.S. President Donald Trump has increased pressure on the Federal Reserve, criticizing its current policy stance and specifically targeting Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Reports suggest that the White House is actively exploring legal options to remove Powell from his position. This direct interference with the central bank’s decision-making raises serious concerns about the Fed’s independence.
- POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES: The perception that the Fed is no longer acting independently could undermine confidence in U.S. monetary policy. When investors believe that interest rate decisions are driven by political agendas rather than economic fundamentals, it tends to weaken the U.S. dollar. Historical precedents show that political pressure on central banks often leads to currency depreciation.
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
CENTRAL BANKS:
- THURSDAY, MAY 1, AT 04:00 GMT+1: BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) INTEREST RATE DECISION. On January 23, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates from 0.25% to 0.50%, marking the highest level in 15 years. Rising inflationary pressure in Japan suggests a higher chance of a rate hike in May.
- WEDNESDAY, MAY 7 AT 19:00 GMT+1: FED INTEREST RATE DECISION. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.5% in May, but it is expected to cut rates to 4.00% or lower by the end of 2025.
EVENTS (USA):
- WEDNESDAY, APRIL 30, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) (Q1). This is the first report for the first quarter of 2025. The last GDP data for Q4 2024 came out at 2.4%, down from the 3.1% in Q3 2024. However, if the data shows further declines, the US Dollar could weaken.
- FRIDAY, MAY 2, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (APRIL): The U.S. labor market report will be in focus. In March, NFPs came in at 228K and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from the previous 4.1%. If the unemployment rate keeps the upward trend (4% in January, 4.1% in February and 4.2% in March), it could lead to a decrease in the value of the US dollar.
USDJPY, APRIL 22, 2025
Current Price: 140.60
|
USD/JPY |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
144.00 |
|
|
143.50 |
|
|
143.00 |
|
|
138.00 |
|
|
136.00 |
|
|
134.00 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
USD/JPY |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
-2,421 |
-2,065 |
-1,709 |
1,851 |
3,275 |
4,699 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
-2,107 |
-1,797 |
-1,487 |
1,611 |
2,851 |
4,090 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
-1,811 |
-1,545 |
-1,278 |
1,385 |
2,450 |
3,516 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
-3,350 |
-2,857 |
-2,365 |
2,562 |
4,533 |
6,503 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100.000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 11:00 (GMT+1) 22/04/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.