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Trump Tariffs (February 1st)
President Trump previously outlined that 25% tariffs upon goods from Mexico and Canada may be implemented. Tariffs of 10% on China and even on Europe are also being considered if EU countries do not buy more US natural gas and crude oil. Trump is also putting pressure (via tariffs) on EU to cut regulation of American tech companies.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Stocks, European stocks, Gold, EURUSD, CADUSD
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OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) (February 3rd at 11:00 GMT)
OPEC members (including Russia) will meet and will discuss the current deal. OPEC’s latest decision was to delay unwinding voluntary output cuts (of 2.2 million bpd) until the end of March. But the cartel is being pressured by new US President Trump to increase output, to bring global prices down. The Trump administration has a close relationship with Saudi Arabia, but OPEC ignored Trump’s call to increase their output in his first presidency.
Possible Influence: Volatile Crude oil
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US ISM Manufacturing PMI for December (February 3rd at 15:00 GMT)
ISM Manufacturing PMI previous print was 49.3. The number was higher than the previous 48.4.
Possible influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
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Bank of England Meeting (February 6th at 12:00 GMT)
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England will meet to decide on interest rates. The current rate is 4.75% and expectations are for a cut of 0.25% this month. The last BoE cut was by 0.25% in November.
Possible Influence: Volatile British Pound and British stocks
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U.S. Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) (January) (February 7th at 13:30 GMT)
The previous month had unemployment at 4.1%. Nonfarm Payrolls for the previous month printed 256,000.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
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US Inflation data (January) (February 12th at 13:30 GMT)
Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was 3.2%, Year-over-Year in December. Top-line CPI for December came in at 2.9%, in line with expectations.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
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Retail Sales in the US for (January) (February 14th at 13:30 GMT)
Month-over-Month Retail Sales was at 0.4% in December, which was lower than the 0.6% expected by the market.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
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Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate decision (February 18th at 04:30 GMT)
The RBA will meet to decide on interest rates and appears set to cut rates by up to 25 basis points. The current rate is 4.35%.
Possible Influence: Volatile Australian Dollar
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German Federal election (February 23rd)
After the collapse of the German government in December new snap elections will be held. A new Christian Democratic Union led government is most likely, but markets will be watching out for a likely increase in support for the right-wing Eurosceptic party, AFD.
Possible Influence: Volatile EURUSD, German stocks and GER40 Index
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Company Q4 Earnings Season (February)
The 4th Quarter earnings season continues in February, with many tech companies posting results.
Of the major companies Palantir (February 3rd), Google and AMD (February 4th), ARM and Walt Disney (February 5th), Amazon (February 6th), Alibaba, NVIDIA (February 26th), Virgin and Plug Power will declare their earnings.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Stocks