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US ISM Manufacturing PMI (June) (July 1st at 15:00 GMT+1)
May's PMI printed at 56.1. The consensus forecast for June is 54.9.
Possible influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
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Reserve Bank of Australia (July 5th at 05:30 GMT+1)
The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet to decide about interest rates. The rate is currently 0.85%. It was last changed at their June meeting when it was increased by 25 basis points.
Possible Influence: Volatile AUD
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U.S. Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) (June) (July 8th at 13:30 GMT+1)
The Unemployment rate for May was 3.6%. It is expected to remain the same at 3.6% for June. Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to fall to 310,000 for June, lower than May’s figure of 390,000.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
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Inflation data in US (June) (July 13th at 13:30 GMT+1)
Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was 6.0%, Year-over-Year in May. June’s Core CPI is expected to fall to 5.9%, Year-over-Year. Top-line CPI for May came in at 1.0%, Month-over-Month. The forecast for Top-line CPI for June is 0.7%, Month-over-Month.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
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Bank of Canada Meeting (July 13th at 15:00 GMT+1)
The central bank will meet to discuss interest rates and policy. The current interest rate is 1.5%. Analysts expect it will raise rates to 2.0%.
Possible influence: Volatile Canadian dollar
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U.S. President Biden Middle East Trip (July 13th to July 16th)
President Biden will make stops in Israel and Saudi Arabia. He is expected to ask Saudi Arabia to increase oil production to help bring down the price of gasoline at the pumps in the United States ahead of the November midterm elections.
Possible influence: Volatile Oil, Natural Gas, Gasoline
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Retail Sales in US (June) (July 15th at 13:30 GMT+1)
Retail Sales fell 0.3%, Month-over-Month, in May. Retail Sales for June are forecast to rise 0.2%, Month-over-Month.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
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Google begins trading post-split (July 18th)
Google announced a 20 to 1 stock split earlier in the year that is effective July 18th.
Possible Influence: Google shares
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ECB Meeting (July) (July 21st at 12:45 GMT+1)
The ECB will meet to set interest rates and to discuss policy on July 21st. The Eurozone deposit rate is currently at -0.50% and the central bank seems likely to follow other major central banks by raising rates.
Possible Influence: Volatile Euro and European stocks
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US Federal Reserve Meeting and Press Conference (July 27th at 19:00 GMT+1 and 19:30 GMT+1)
The U.S. Central Bank’s 2-day meeting concludes on July 27th. They will announce their latest interest rate decision and hold a press conference after to discuss their outlook moving forward as well as their plans for adjustments to their balance sheet. The current rate is 1.75%. They raised it 75 basis points at their last meeting on June 15th.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
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Earnings (July 14th to July 31st)
Second quarter earnings season begins in earnest on July 14th. The major banks will report their financials mid-July followed by the tech giants later in the month. Companies expected to release their earnings in July include Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, IBM, Netflix, Las Vegas Sands, AT&T, Boeing, American Airlines, Intel, Twitter, Johnson & Johnson, Tesla, Coca-Cola, General Motors, AMD, Google, Microsoft, Paypal, Tilray, McDonalds, Pfizer, Facebook, ExxonMobil, Vale, Apple, Chevron, and Amazon.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Stocks and Indices
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Ongoing Tension between the United States, Russia, Europe, and Ukraine (July)
The War in Ukraine continues in July, both on the battlefield and economically. Russia has a firm hold on most of Ukraine's East, about 20% of its pre-war territory. The peace talks are currently at a standstill. The United States authorized another $40 billion in assistance to Ukraine in June and agreed to send more long range rocket launchers. The G7 countries said they would support Ukraine indefinitely. Both Finland and Sweden started their formal application process to join NATO, much to the chagrin of Russia. Lithuania started blocking the transport of sanctioned goods across its country from Russia to its landlocked enclave of Kaliningrad. Russia stated it would respons and its response would not be exclusively diplomatic. The EU continues to struggle to wean itself off of Russian energy.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Natural Gas, Volatile Russian Ruble, Gold, Oil, Palladium, and US Stocks