July 2023 EVENT
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI (June) (July 3rd at 15:00 GMT+1)
May's ISM Manufacturing PMI printed at 46.9. The consensus forecast for June is 47.2.
Possible influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate decision (July 4th at 03:30 GMT+1)
The RBA will meet to decide on interest rates. The current rate is 4.1%.
Possible Influence: Volatile Australian Dollar
- U.S. Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) (June) (July 7th at 13:30 GMT+1)
The Unemployment rate for May was 3.7%. It is expected to remain the same at 3.7% for June. Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to fall to 225,000 for June, lower than May’s figure of 339,000.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- Bank of Canada Meeting (July 12th at 15:00 GMT+1)
The Bank of Canada will meet to set interest rates. They are currently at 4.75%. The current forecast is that the rate in June may increase by 25 basis points.
Possible Influence: Volatile Canadian Dollar and Canadian Stocks
- Inflation data in US (June) (July 12th at 13:30 GMT+1)
Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was 5.3%, Year-over-Year in May. June’s Core CPI is expected to fall to 5.0%, Year-over-Year. Top-line CPI for May came in at 4.0%, Year-over-Year and the forecast is a drop to 3.6%, Year-over-Year, in June.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- Retail Sales in US (June) (July 18th at 13:30 GMT+1)
Retail Sales grew to 0.3%, Month-over-Month, in May. Retail Sales for June are expected to remain at 0.3%, Month-over-Month.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- FED meeting and press conference (July 26th at 19:00 GMT and 19:30 GMT+1)
The US Federal Open Market Committee of the U.S Federal Reserve will conclude its 2-day meeting to decide on interest rates. The current rate is 5.25% after the bank froze interest rates in June. Most analysts are expecting a 25 basis point increase to 5.50% this month.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Stocks, and Commodities
- European Central Bank Meeting (July 27th at 13:15 GMT+1)
The European Central Bank will meet to discuss interest rates. They are currently at 4.00% and are forecasted to be increased to 4.25%.
Possible Influence: Volatile Euro and European Stocks
- Bank of Japan Meeting (July 28th at 03:00 GMT+1)
The Bank of Japan will meet to set its interest rates. The current rate is -0.10% and is expected to remain the same level.
Possible Influence: Volatile Japanese Yen
- United States GDP, Final Reading (1st Quarter) (July 27th at 13:30 GMT+1)
The Preliminary reading of 2nd Quarter GDP in the United States is expected to come in at 1.6%. The 1st Quarter’s final GDP reading was 2.0%.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- Company Earnings Season (July)
The first of the 2nd Quarter earnings are reported around mid-July. Typically, the big banks are the first to report, with Citigroup, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley all reporting. They are followed by all the major tech companies, including Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Apple.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Stocks
- Ongoing Tension between the United States, Russia, Europe, and Ukraine (July) and NATO Summit (July 11-July 12, Lithuania)
The War in Ukraine continues with no sign of peace in sight. Ukraine has reportedly begun its long awaited counter-offensive. NATO’s summit will have Ukraine at the top of its agenda.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Natural Gas, Wheat, Volatile Russian Ruble, Gold, Oil, Palladium, and US Stocks