March 2023 EVENTS
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI (February) (March 1st at 15:00 GMT)
January's ISM Manufacturing PMI printed at 47.4. The consensus forecast for February is 48.
Possible influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- Russia will reduce oil output by 500,000 barrels a day (March 1st)
RUssia has formally announced it will reduce its oil output by 500,000 barrels per day starting on March 1st. This is a response to the price caps and embargoes that make Russian oil less desirable on the global market.
Possible influence: Volatile Oil
- G20 Foreign Ministers Meeting (March 1st and 2nd)
Foreign Ministers of the most developed economies in the world (including Russia) will meet to discuss foreign policy, security and trade. The war in Ukraine is likely to dominate discussions but the meeting may highlight some divisions between the group on the issue.
Possible influence: Volatile Currencies, Gold and Stocks
- 14th National People’s Congress of China (March 5th)
The NPC is the highest organ of State power in China. It is composed of NPC deputies who are elected from 35 electoral units according to the law. Premier Li Keqiang is expected to deliver the government work report. This will include the 2023 economic growth targets, as well as fiscal budget and policy support for recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Possible influence: Volatile Commodities and Chinese Stocks
- Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate decision (March 7th at 03:30 GMT)
The RBA will meet to decide on interest rates. The current rate is 3.35%.
Possible Influence: Volatile Australian Dollar
- Powell testifies before U.S. Senate and House Banking Committees (March 7th and 8th)
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee on March 7th, and the U.S. House Banking Committee on March 8th. In these regularly scheduled appearances he will discuss monetary policy and the state of the economy.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Stocks, and Commodities
- Bank of Canada Meeting (March 8th at 15:00 GMT)
The Bank of Canada will meet to set interest rates. They are currently 4.5%. The forecast is that the rate will remain unchanged at 4.5%, but some analysts state that rates could rise by 25 basis points.
Possible Influence: Volatile Canadian Dollar and Canadian Stocks
- Bank of Japan Meeting (March 10th at 03:00 GMT)
The Bank of Japan will meet to set its interest rates. The current rate is -0.10% and is expected to remain the same level.
Possible Influence: Volatile Japanese Yen
- U.S. Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) (February) (March 10th at 13:30 GMT)
The Unemployment rate for January was 3.4%. It is expected to remain 3.4% for February. Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to fall to 200,000 for February, lower than January’s figure of 517,000.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- Inflation data in US (February) (March 14th at 13:30 GMT)
Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was 5.6%, Year-over-Year in January. February’s Core CPI is expected to fall to 5.4%, Year-over-Year. Top-line CPI for January came in at 6.4%, Year-over-Year and is forecast to drop to 5.9%, Year-over-Year, in February.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- Retail Sales in US (February) (March 15th at 13:30 GMT)
Retail Sales rose 3.0%, Month-over-Month, in January. Retail Sales for February are expected to fall 0.7%, Month-over-Month.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- European Central Bank Meeting (March 16th at 13:15 GMT)
The European Central Bank will meet to discuss interest rates. They are currently 3% and forecast to be increased to 3.5%.
Possible Influence: Volatile Euro and European Stocks
- Federal Reserve meeting and press conference (March 22nd at 19:00 GMT and 19:30 GMT)
The US Federal Open Market Committee of the U.S Federal Reserve will conclude its 2-day meeting to decide on interest rates. The current rate is 4.75% after the bank hiked rates by 25 basis points in January. Most analysts expect a 25 basis point increase to 5.00% this month.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Stocks, and Commodities
- Turkish Gas Summit (March 22nd)
Turkey will host suppliers of natural gas from the Middle East, Mediterranean, Caspian and Middle Asia with consumer countries from Europe.
Possible Influence: Volatile Oil, Gasoline, and Natural Gas
- Bank of England Meeting (March 23rd at 12:00 GMT)
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England will meet to decide on interest rates. The current rate is 4%. It is expected to raise interest rates 50 basis points to 4.5%.
Possible Influence: Volatile British Pound and British Stocks
- United States GDP, Final Reading (4th Quarter) (March 30th at 13:30 GMT)
The final reading of 4th Quarter GDP in the United States is expected to match its second reading of 3.9%.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- Company Earnings Season (March)
4th Quarter earnings season is tapering off in March. Companies that will be reporting include Lowe’s, Nio, Plug Power, Salesforce, ChargePoint, Costco, The Gap, Adobe, FedEx, XPeng, Nike, and Micron Technology.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Stocks
- Ongoing Tension between the United States, Russia, Europe, and Ukraine (March)
The War in Ukraine entered its second year on February 24th. There has been little movement of the front lines the last few months. Rumors swirl of new Russian offensives, and impending Ukrainian counter-offensives. Peace negotiations seem elusive as both sides are firm on their demands. The West continues to support Ukraine, both militarily and financially. The latest commitment by the West was to send nearly 100 modern tanks from NATO countries including the US M1 Abrams, the German Leopard, and the UK Challenger.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Natural Gas, Wheat, Volatile Russian Ruble, Gold, Oil, Palladium, and US Stocks