March 2024 EVENTS
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI for February (March 1st) at 15:00 GMT)
January’s ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to print 49.5. The previous print was 49.1.
Possible influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- US Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies before U.S. Senate and House Banking Committees (March 6th and 7th)
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testifies before the U.S. House Banking Committee on March 6th and the Senate Banking Committee on March 7th. In these regularly scheduled appearances, he will provide a monetary policy update and speak on the state of the economy.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Stocks, and Commodities
- Bank of Canada Meeting (March 6th at 14:45 GMT)
The Bank of Canada will meet to set interest rates. They are currently 5%. The forecast is that the rate will remain unchanged.
Possible Influence: Volatile Canadian Dollar and Canadian Stocks
- European Central Bank Meeting (March 7th at 13:15 GMT)
The European Central Bank will meet to discuss interest rates. Rates are currently at 4.5%. An interest rate cut is currently on the cards in April or June, analysts say.
Possible Influence: Volatile Euro and European Stocks
- U.S. Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) (February) (March 8th at 13:30 GMT)
The previous month had unemployment at 3.7%. Nonfarm Payrolls for the previous month printed 353,000.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- US Inflation data (February) (March 12th at 13:30 GMT)
Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was 3.9%, Year-over-Year in January. Top-line CPI for January came in at 3.1%, above the expected 2.9%.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- Retail Sales in the US for (February) (March 14th at 13:30 GMT)
Retail Sales fell by -0.8%, Month-over-Month, in January, which was lower than expected by the market.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- Election in Russia (March 15-17)
Presidential elections will take place in Russia with President Putin almost certain to continue in the role for another six years. The election is also significant due to the Russia-Ukraine war and increasing confrontation between Western countries and Russia.
Possible Influence: Volatile Gold and Commodities
- Bank of Japan Meeting (March 19th at 03:00 GMT)
The Bank of Japan will meet to set its interest rates. The current rate is -0.10% (since Jan 2016) but current expectations are that the bank will increase rates and thus abandon negative interest rates at this month’s meeting.
Possible Influence: Volatile Japanese Yen
- Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate decision (March 19th at 03:30 GMT)
The RBA will meet to decide on interest rates. The current rate is 4.35%.
Possible Influence: Volatile Australian Dollar
- Federal Reserve meeting and press conference (March 20th at 19:00 GMT and 19:30 GMT)
The US Federal Open Market Committee of the U.S. Federal Reserve will conclude its 2-day meeting to decide on interest rates. The current rate is 5.5%. Analysts expect the rate to remain unchanged at this meeting.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Stocks, and Commodities
- Bank of England Meeting (March 21st at 12:00 GMT)
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England will meet to decide on interest rates. The current rate is 5.25%. The rate was unchanged on February 1st and it was last raised by 50 basis points at the meeting in August 2023.
Possible Influence: Volatile British Pound and British stocks
- Company Q4 Earnings Season (March)
The 4th Quarter earnings season winds down in March with some companies still to declare their results. Plug Power will announce results on March 1st while Xpeng is due on March 4th. Nio will declare its earnings on March 5th, while Nike will publish earnings on March 21st.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Stocks
- ISRAEL- HAMAS WAR AND HOUTHI ATTACKS ON RED SEA SHIPS CONTINUE (March)
ISRAEL CONTINUES GROUND INCURSION IN GAZA (SECOND PHASE OF THE WAR). Israel resumes operations in Gaza, pushing south towards the border town of Rafa which could trigger a humanitarian crisis. But Israel is under pressure from the US and in negotiations with Hamas to agree to a ceasefire. Houthi attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea continue while the US and UK conduct airstrikes on Yemen’s Houthi bases. If no ceasefire is agreed the risk of escalation could increase.
Possible Influence: Volatile Crude oil, Natural gas, Gold
- OPEC production agreement (March)
OPEC members stated they will make a policy decision in March on production cuts. Existing supply cuts total around 3.66 mln barrels per day and also voluntarily (Saudi Arabia and Russia) are cutting by an additional 1.4 mln bpd until the end of the first quarter. It is expected that OPEC will continue these supply cuts into the second quarter or potentially into the second half of the year.
The next OPEC JMMC meeting is scheduled for April 3rd
Possible Influence: Volatile Crude oil