May 2023 EVENTS
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI (April) (May 1st at 15:00 GMT+1)
March's ISM Manufacturing PMI printed at 46.3. The consensus forecast for April is 45.
Possible influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate decision (May 2nd at 03:30 GMT+1)
The RBA will meet to decide on interest rates. The current rate is 3.60%.
Possible Influence: Volatile Australian Dollar
- FED meeting and press conference (May 3rd at 19:00 GMT and 19:30 GMT)
The US Federal Open Market Committee of the U.S Federal Reserve will conclude its 2-day meeting to decide on interest rates. The current rate is 5.0% after the bank hiked rates by 25 basis points in March. Most analysts expect a 25 basis point increase to 5.25% this month.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Stocks, and Commodities
- European Central Bank Meeting (May 4th at 13:15 GMT+1)
The European Central Bank will meet to discuss interest rates. They are currently at 3.5% and forecast to be increased to 3.75%.
Possible Influence: Volatile Euro and European Stocks
- U.S. Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) (April) (May 5th at 13:30 GMT+1)
The Unemployment rate for March was 3.5%. It is expected to remain 3.5% for April. Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to fall to 190,000 for April, lower than March’s figure of 236,000.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- Inflation data in US (April) (May 10th at 13:30 GMT+1)
Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was 5.6%, Year-over-Year in March. April’s Core CPI is expected to remain 5.6%, Year-over-Year. Top-line CPI for March came in at 5.0%, Year-over-Year and the forecast is a drop to 4.9%, Year-over-Year, in April.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- Bank of England Meeting (May 11th at 12:00 GMT+1)
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England will meet to decide on interest rates. The current rate is 4.25%. It is expected to raise interest rates 25 basis points to 4.5%.
Possible Influence: Volatile British Pound and British Stocks
- Elections in Turkey (May 14th)
Turkey will vote for the President and members of parliament.
Possible Influence: Volatile Turkish Lira
- Retail Sales in US (April) (May 16th at 13:30 GMT+1)
Retail Sales fell 0.6 %, Month-over-Month, in March. Retail Sales for April are expected to fall 0.7%, Month-over-Month.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- G7 Summit, Japan (May 19 - May 21)
Top global leaders will gather in Japan to discuss geopolitical, economic challenges facing G7 countries. Ukraine / Russia and China will be high on the agenda, also the global financial system.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar and Gold, Stocks
- United States GDP, Second Reading (1st Quarter) (May 25th at 13:30 GMT+1)
The second reading of 1st Quarter GDP in the United States is expected to come in at 1.1%. The 4th Quarter’s final GDP reading was 2.6%.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- Company Earnings Season (May)
1st Quarter earnings season continues in May. Companies confirmed or expected to report their financials include Uber, Pfizer, Ford, Advanced Micro Devices, Kraft Heinz, Qualcomm, Ferrari, Intercontinental Exchange, Moderna, Booking Holdings, Apple, AIG, Expedia, Royal Caribbean, Airbnb, Walt Disney, Home Depot, Applied Materials, Deere, Xpeng, Lowe’s, NVIDIA, Alibaba, Baidu, and Chargepoint.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Stocks
- Ongoing Tension between the United States, Russia, Europe, and Ukraine (May)
The War in Ukraine continues in its second year. Fighting remains intense in the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. Ukraine has been receiving more military equipment from the West including advanced battle tanks and is expected to launch a counteroffensive in the coming months. True peace talks remain elusive despite attempts by China to mediate.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Natural Gas, Wheat, Volatile Russian Ruble, Gold, Oil, Palladium, and US Stocks
- United States Debt Ceiling Negotiations (May)
The United States has already exceeded its statutory debt ceiling and the U.S. Treasury has been taking extraordinary measures to keep the government funded and make interest payments on its $31.4 trillion debt. The Republican controlled House of Representatives has just passed a bill to increase the debt ceiling, but it has limits on future spending. If the debt ceiling is not raised in the near future it could lead to an economic crisis and possibly a default on United States treasuries. Analysts say the US government has enough financial means only to pay ongoing debt through to the early summer of 2023.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Stocks, Currencies, Gold