October 2022 EVENTS
- UK Conservative Party (annual) Conference (October 2nd - October 5th)
Top officials from the Conservative party and its members gather. Prime Minister Truss and Chancellor Kwarteng will give speeches about policy.
Possible influence: Volatile UK Pound and UK Stocks
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI (September) (October 3rd at 15:00 GMT+1)
August's ISM Manufacturing PMI printed at 52.8. The consensus forecast for September is 52.0.
Possible influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- Reserve Bank of Australia (October 4th at 05:30 GMT+1)
The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet to decide about interest rates. The rate is currently 2.35%. It was last changed at their September meeting when it was increased by 50 basis points.
Possible Influence: Volatile AUD
- OPEC+ Meeting (October 5th)
OPEC+ is scheduled to hold their next meeting on October 5th. OPEC+ is made up of the original OPEC cartel plus Russia.
Possible influence: Volatile Oil, Natural Gas, Gasoline
- U.S. Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) (September) (October 7th at 13:30 GMT+1)
The Unemployment rate for August was 3.7%. It is expected to remain the same at 3.7% for September. Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to fall to 250,000 for September, lower than August’s figure of 315,000.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- Inflation data in US (September) (October 13th at 13:30 GMT+1)
Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was 6.3%, Year-over-Year in August. September’s Core CPI is expected to climb to 6.05%, Year-over-Year. Top-line CPI for August came in at 8.3%, Year-over-Year and is forecast to remain the same for September at 8.3%, Year-over-Year.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- Retail Sales in US (September) (October 14th at 13:30 GMT+1)
Retail Sales rose 0.3%, Month-over-Month, in August. Retail Sales for September are forecast to increase 0.5%, Month-over-Month.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- Company Earnings Season (Q3) (October 14th to October 31st)
3rd Quarter Earnings seasons commences in mid-October, starting with the banks and ending with some of the big tech names towards the end of the month. Companies reporting quarterly financials in October include: Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Tesla, American Airlines, Intel, General Motors, Google, AMD, Microsoft, Boeing, Apple, Chevron, Amazon, and dozens of others.
- Chinese Communist Party Congress (October 16th)
Delegates will meet to elect the Central Committee and approve the membership of the Politburo and Standing COmmittee. President Xi Jinping is expected to be re-elected as President.
Possible Influence: Volatile Currencies, Commodities, and Stocks
● Bank of Canada Meeting (October 26th at 15:00 GMT+1)
The central bank will meet to discuss interest rates and policy. The current interest rate is 3.25%.
Possible influence: Volatile Canadian dollar
● European Central Bank Meeting (October 27th at 13:15 GMT+1)
The ECB will meet to set interest rates and to discuss policy on October 8th. The Eurozone deposit rate is currently at 0.75% and the central bank seems likely to follow other major central banks by raising rates to control inflation.
Possible Influence: Volatile EUR and European stocks
- United States GDP, First Reading (3rd Quarter) (October 27th at 13:30 GMT+1)
U.S. GDP fell at an annual rate of 0.6% in the 2nd Quarter, U.S. 3rd Quarter GDP is expected to rise 0.3%.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- Bank of Japan Meeting (October 28th at 03:00 GMT+1)
The Bank of Japan meets to set rates which are expected to remain at -0.10%
Possible Influence: Volatile Japanese Yen
- Ongoing Tension between the United States, Russia, Europe, and Ukraine (October)
The War in Ukraine entered a new phase in September. Ukraine staged counter offensives which allowed it to regain about 20% of the territory lost to Russia since the beginning of the war. Russia administered sham elections in four of Ukraine’s Eastern provinces that it occupies to join the Russian Federation. The results were in favor of joining Russia. The Russian parliament is expected to formally accept these Ukraine provinces into Russia on October 4th. There are no signs of any diplomatic settlement to this conflict at the present time.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Natural Gas, Wheat, Volatile Russian Ruble, Gold, Oil, Palladium, and US Stocks