Alibaba (#ALIBABA) weekly special report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
E-COMMERCE: THE INDUSTRY
- THE GLOBAL E-COMMERCE MARKET IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL $6.9 TRILLIONS IN 2024. The global e-commerce market is expected to be worth $6.9 trillion this year, up from $6.3 trillion in 2023. This presents new possibilities for businesses to tap into new demographics and expand beyond local markets.
- E-COMMERCE SALES ARE EXPECTED TO GROW 9.5% IN 2024. This growth highlights the increasing consumer preference for online shopping. Businesses that embrace this trend now will be better equipped to thrive in a market that is rapidly moving away from traditional in-store shopping experiences.
- BY 2027, 30% OF RETAIL PURCHASES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ONLINE. By 2027, nearly a quarter of all retail purchases are projected to occur online, with the e-commerce market projected to surpass $8 trillion.
ALIBABA: THE COMPANY
- ALIBABA IS ONE OF THE LARGEST E-COMMERCE IN THE WORLD:
E-COMMERCE MARKET SHARE (COUNTRY) China is estimated to claim 52.1% of the global market, USA with 20.1%, UK with 3.4% and Japan with 3.3%. Rest of the world covers 21.1%.
E-COMMERCE MARKET SHARE (COMPANY) Alibaba (Taobao and Tmall) claimed 24.00%, while Amazon took up 13% of the global e- commerce market. JD.com claimed 9.20% of the market.
ALIBABA is estimated to have 279 million active buyers, 8.5 million active sellers, 12.7 billion annual orders, and AliPay accounts for roughly 50% of China’s online payment market.
ALIBABA: NEWS AND EVENTS
- NEWS (FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 15): SEPTEMBER QUARTER EARNINGS. Revenue was $33,701 million, an increase of 5% YoY. Income from operations was $5,023 million – an increase of 5% YoY. Net income was $6,025 million, an increase of 63% YoY.
- CHINA ANNOUNCES MAJOR STIMULUS MEASURES TO STRENGTHEN ECONOMY: China's central bank will cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points and reduce key interest rates, freeing up 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) for lending, while the government is expected to announce a new fiscal stimulus package, including 2 trillion yuan ($284 billion) in special sovereign bonds, to further boost the economy. In December the politburo has announced that it is looking to switch it’s economic policy stance from “prudent” to “moderately loose”, a phrase they have not used since the depths of the global financial crisis in 2008. This is the first time that the current leadership said that monetary policy should be “loose”, setting the stage for a “new monetary easing cycle”. Lower interest rates, and lower reserve requirements will create strong upward pressure for Alibaba stocks.
ALIBABA: RECENT PRICE ACTION
- ALIBABA IS CURRENTLY TRADING AT $89. It is expected the stock to jump given the new stimulus policy which will be implemented by the politburo.
- STOCK PRICE ACTION: THE STOCK HAS FALLEN BY ABOUT 72% FROM IT'S ALL-TIME HIGH OF $319. Alibaba was last trading around $89, and if a full recovery follows to all-time highs, the stock could see an upside of around ~358%. However, the price could go lower.
Source: Fortrade MetaTrader 4
GRAPH (Monthly): September 2016 – December 2024
*Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.
- ANALYSTS OPINIONS: Goldman Sachs forecasts $134. Citigroup forecasts $133. Deutsche Bank $130 JPMorgan $120
#ALIBABA, December 12, 2024
Current Price: 89
Alibaba |
Weekly |
Trend direction |
|
160 |
|
125 |
|
105 |
|
80 |
|
75 |
|
70 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
Alibaba |
||||||
Pivot Points |
||||||
Profit or loss in $ |
71,000.00 |
36,000.00 |
16,000.00 |
-9,000.00 |
-14,000.00 |
-19,000.00 |
Profit or loss in €2 |
67,538.97 |
34,245.11 |
15,220.05 |
-8,561.28 |
-13,317.54 |
-18,073.81 |
Profit or loss in £2 |
55,648.38 |
28,216.08 |
12,540.48 |
-7,054.02 |
-10,972.92 |
-14,891.82 |
Profit or loss in C$2 |
100,368.25 |
50,890.94 |
22,618.20 |
-12,722.74 |
-19,790.92 |
-26,859.11 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:35 (GMT) 12/12/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.