COCOA (#COCOA) Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation
TECHNICAL REVIEW
- COCOA PRICES TESTED THEIR LOWEST LEVELS IN MORE THAN 3 MONTHS ON SEPTEMBER 4 ($6831). Cocoa was trading around the mark of $6900 on October 3.
- COCOA PRICES HAVE TESTED THE MARK OF $7000 (OR NEAR) 7 TIMES SINCE MAY 2024. This is the 8th time that the Cocoa prices are testing levels near the mark of $7000.
GRAPH (DAILY): APRIL 2024 - OCTOBER 2024
- 2024 STATISTICS: COCOA TENDS TO RECOVER BY AROUND 27% AFTER TESTING THE MARK OF $7000 OR NEAR IT.
DATA SOURCE: Fortrade MetaTrader 4
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
KEY FUNDAMENTALS:
- TOP COCOA PRODUCERS (tons): 1. Ivory Coast - 2.200m, 2. Ghana - 1.100m, 3. Indonesia - 0.667m, 4. Ecuador - 0.337m, 5. Cameroon - 0.300m.
- SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS: Ghana and Ivory Coast, which produce over 60% of the world's cocoa, are facing severe harvest problems.
- CONSUMER TRENDS: Traditional consumer markets for cocoa include Europe, North America, and South America, where consumption has shown stagnation in recent years.
NEWS AND EVENTS
- GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF COCOA THIS YEAR TO DROP BY 11% according to International Cocoa Organization. Climate change has put a squeeze on the countries that have the specific conditions needed to grow cocoa beans with rising temperatures
- AUGUST 2024 MONTHLY COCOA MARKET REVIEW BY THE INTERNATIONAL COCOA ORGANIZATION (ICCO): According to the ICCO, Reports of conducive weather conditions, which is expected to bolster the 2024/25 main crop especially across the West African cocoa belt, were the main factor that provided the relief in prices. The fall in prices signaled easing concerns about the availability of cocoa beans. MARKET DEFICIT: Earlier in their quarterly report, the ICCO specified that the current market deficit amounts to 439,000 million tons, up from previous estimates of 374,000 million tons.
- NEWS (AUGUST 26): GHANA STRUGGLES TO SECURE FUNDING OF COCOA MARKET NEXT SEASON. According to Bloomberg, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, known as Cocobod, is still in talks with foreign lenders to raise a syndicated loan to fund the next season’s crop. Negotiations are ongoing, but it will not bring in more than $600 million out of an initial target of $1.5 billion.
COCOA, October 17, 2024
Current Price: 7,773.00
|
Cocoa |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
11,000.00 |
|
|
9,900.00 |
|
|
8,900.00 |
|
|
6,800.00 |
|
|
6,600.00 |
|
|
6,400.00 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
32,270.00 |
21,270.00 |
11,270.00 |
-9,730.00 |
-11,730.00 |
-13,730.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
29,729.47 |
19,595.47 |
10,382.74 |
-8,963.98 |
-10,806.53 |
-12,649.07 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
24,858.23 |
16,384.71 |
8,681.51 |
-7,495.21 |
-9,035.85 |
-10,576.49 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
44,469.25 |
29,310.84 |
15,530.48 |
-13,408.30 |
-16,164.37 |
-18,920.45 |
1. 1 lot is equivalent of 10 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:45 (GMT+1) 17/10/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit