Crude Oil

Crude Oil weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:

GEPOLITICAL TENSIONS:

• ISRAEL: FEARS OVER AN ALL-OUT WAR WITH HEZBOLLAH RISE HIGH, DECISION TO BE MADE SOON. According to Reuters, Israel could soon make a decision an all-out war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hesbollah’s leader Nasrella said last week that militant leaders from Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and other countries had previously offered to send tens of thousands of fighters to help Hezbollah, but he said the group already had more than 100,000 fighters. The tensions in the Middle East could cause oil supply disraptions, which in turn could positively support the oil prices.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:

• OPEC+ MEETING (JUNE 2): MOST OF THE CURRENT OIL PRODUCTION CUTS TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE END OF 2025. According to Reuters, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, together known as OPEC+, are currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd), which is about 5.7% of global demand. This includes 3.66 million bpd of cuts that were due to expire at the end of 2024, and voluntary cuts by eight members of 2.2 million bpd to expire by the end of June 2024. The group, however, agreed to extend the cuts of 3.66 million bpd by a year until the end of 2025. It will also prolong the cuts of 2.2 million bpd by three months until end-September 2024, before phasing it out over a year from October 2024 to September 2025.

TRAVEL SEASON EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE OIL DEMAND:

• GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECTS A DAFICIT OF 1.3 MILLION BARRELS A DAY IN Q3 OF 2024. Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report that solid summer transport demand will push the oil market into a third-quarter deficit of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd).
• US DRIVING SEASON (MAY 27 - SEPTEMBER 2): During the period, the US citizens travel around, consuming a lot of fuel and therefore reducing federal inventories. This period could be bullish for the oil prices. According to CNN Business, 212 million people are expected to travel in the US this summer or 82% the U.S. population, which would be the highest in 20 years.

EVENTS:

• TUESDAY (JULY 16) AT 21:30 GMT+1: US WEEKLY OIL INVENTORIES DATA (AMERICAN PETROLEIUM INSTITUTE). Analysts expect to see a decrease in the US oil inventories for the past week due to ongoing travel season in the US. If the inventories fall, the supply gets lower, which in turn could support positively the oil prices.
• WEDNESDAY (JULY 17) AT 15:30 GMT+1: US WEEKLY OIL INVENTORIES DATA (US GOVERNMENT). Analysts expect to see a decrease in the US oil inventories for the past week due to ongoing travel season in the US. If the inventories fall, the supply gets lower, which in turn could support positively the oil prices.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

• SHORT- TERM SUPPORT AT $80: The Crude Oil price has seen strong support at $80 for period of one month.
• THE $80 (OR NEAR) MARK HAS BEEN TESTED 3 TIMES OVER THE PAST ONE MONTH. This is the fourth time that the Crude Oil price got near the mark of $80. Over the past month, Crude Oil would always bounce back once it gets down to or near the support level of $80.

Daily Graph: June 2024 – July 2024

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.

Crude Oil, July 15, 2024
Current Price: 80.70

Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units

2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:30 (GMT+1) 15/07/2024

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
• Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.