Crude Oil weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
TECHNICAL REVIEW:
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CRUDE OIL PRICES HAVE TESTED THE MARK OF $70 (OR NEAR) 13 TIMES SINCE 2021. This is the 14th time that Crude Oil prices are testing levels near the mark of $70.
GRAPH (Weekly): July 2021 – December 2024
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.
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2021- 2024 STATISTICS: CRUDE OIL TENDS TO RECOVER BY AROUND 15% AFTER TESTING THE MARK OF $70 OR NEAR IT.
DATA SOURCE: Fortrade MetaTrader 4
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.
FUNDAMENTAL REVIEW: DEMAND EXPECTED TO RISE AND POSSIBLY EXCEED SUPPLY IN Q1 OF 2025:
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DEMAND SIDE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DUE TO ADDITIONAL ECONOMIC STIMULUS IN CHINA, SUPPORTING CHINA OIL CONSUMPTION AND OIL IMPORTS. China remained to be the largest oil importer in the world and the second largest oil conumser in the world after the US economy. According to Reuters, China will issue a record 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds in 2025 to bolster its economy, in addition to more than 400 billion dollars of previous monetary and fiscal measures already announced earlier in 2024.
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SUPPLY SIDE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY IN Q1 OF 2025. On December 5, OPEC+, which controls almost 50% of global oil markets, agreed to extend current cuts (around 5.7 million barrels a day) by April 2025, meaning that their oil output would remain unchanged in Q1 of 2025.
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DEMAND-SUPPLY RELATIONSHIP (Q1 2025): With limited supply changes and expectations for rising oil demand in Q1 (driven by China), the markets could develop fears of a possible deficit, which tends to be positive for oil prices.
GEOPOLITICS:
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EVENT (AFTER JANUARY 20, 2025): US PRESIDENT-ELECT DONALD TRUMP IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE PRESSURE ON IRAN AFTER HE TAKES OFFICE ON JANUARY 20, 2025. President Trump is expected to impose new sanctions on Iranian oil, to slash Iranian oil exports to a minimum from the current near 1.6 million barrels a day.
ANALYST OPINION:
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BANKS: Morgan Stanley forecasts a range between $77-$80; Goldman Sachs forecasts a range between $74.5-$77.5; JPMorgan forecasts a range between $77-$80; UBS forecasts a range between $77-$80.
Crude Oil, December 24, 2024
Current Price: 69.40
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
Trend direction |
|
80 |
|
77 |
|
73 |
|
66 |
|
65 |
|
64 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
Crude Oil |
||||||
Pivot Points |
||||||
Profit or loss in $ |
10,600 |
7,600 |
3,600 |
-3,400 |
-4,400 |
-5,400 |
Profit or loss in €2 |
10,197 |
7,311 |
3,463 |
-3,271 |
-4,233 |
-5,194 |
Profit or loss in £2 |
8,458 |
6,064 |
2,873 |
-2,713 |
-3,511 |
-4,309 |
Profit or loss in C$2 |
15,256 |
10,938 |
5,181 |
-4,893 |
-6,333 |
-7,772 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:00 (GMT) 24/12/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
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You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
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Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.