EUR/USD Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: EUROZONE
- FRENCH GOVERNMENT COLLAPSED OVER 2025 BUDGET VOTE. The French government has been toppled in a vote of no confidence, plunging the euro zone’s second-largest economy into a period of deep political uncertainty. New parliamentary elections cannot take place until next June-July, 12 months on from the last vote. Further uncertainties, therefore, could be expected, which could put the Euro under negative pressure.
- GERMAN GOVERNMENT TO FACE CONFIDENCE VOTE ON DECEMBER 16, 2024. According to France24, the government of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will face a confidence vote on December 16 ahead of new parliamentary elections expected to be scheduled for February 23, 2025, following the shock collapse of the chancellor's three-party coalition. Germany’s three-party ruling coalition collapsed as the Free Democratic Party (FDP) left the coalition which member Linder was in. This weighs on the euro, exacerbating the EUR/USD pair's decline.
EVENTS (USA):
- WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 11 AT 13:30 GMT: U.S INFLATION (CPI) (NOVEMBER): The U.S is scheduled to report its CPI figure for the month of November. The CPI inflation data from last month of October came out at 2.6%, up from 2.4% in September.
EVENTS (EUROPE):
- THURSDAY, DECEMBER 12 AT 13:15 GMT: EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK INTEREST RATE DECISION. The decision will be followed by a press conference at 13:45 GMT. The ECB cut its benchmark interest rate in October from 3.65% to the current 3.40%, and investors expect the ECB could continue with their rate-cutting cycle. The benchmark interest rate in the Eurozone is now expected to be slashed below 3.40%. If the ECB does decide on an interest rate cut, this could push the EURO lower.
PRICE ACTION: EUR/USD
- BREAKING (NOVEMBER 22): EUR/USD HIT ITS LOWEST RATE IN TWO YEARS (1.03305). The EUR/USD currency pair has fallen, as the US dollar continued rising, extending its post-US presidential election rally. Meanwhile, negative economic data in Europe and developing political crises in Germany and France have also put the Euro under negative pressure.
ANALYST OPINION:
- HSBC: The bank forecasts that the EUR/USD will fall below parity to 0.99 by the end of 2025.
EURUSD, DECEMBER 10, 2024
Current Price: 1.0550
|
EUR/USD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1.0800 |
|
|
1.0750 |
|
|
1.0700 |
|
|
1.0400 |
|
|
1.0200 |
|
|
1.0000 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
EUR/USD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
-2,500 |
-2,000 |
-1,500 |
1,500 |
3,500 |
5,500 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
-2,370 |
-1,896 |
-1,422 |
1,422 |
3,318 |
5,213 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
-1,960 |
-1,568 |
-1,176 |
1,176 |
2,744 |
4,311 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
-3,543 |
-2,834 |
-2,126 |
2,126 |
4,960 |
7,794 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100.000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:30 (GMT) 10/12/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.