Gold

GOLD weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:

US FEDERAL RESERVE HAS BEGUN YET ANOTHER INTEREST RATE CUT CYCLE:

• FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE AT 4.5%. The US Federal Reserve decided to cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.50% points in September, 0.25% points in November, and 0.25% in December. The bank expects to cut rates two more times in 2025 to slash its benchmark rate to 4% by the end of 2025. The bank expects rates to fall to 3.40% in 2026 and further down to 3.10% in 2027.
• NEXT FED INTEREST RATE DECISION: Wednesday, March 19 at 18:00 GMT. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will host a press conference at 18:30 GMT. Markets have recently raised their expectations for three interest rate cuts in 2025, which could eventually bring rates down to 3.75% from the current 4.5% (Source: CMEGROUP.COM).

GEOPOLITICS:

• MIDDLE EAST TENSION: Tensions have recently risen in the Middle East after the U.S. conducted airstrikes on the Iran- backed Houthis, while Iran rejected nuclear deal negotiations with US President Trump, which have increased chances for potential military intervention by the U.S. in Iran. Rising geopolitical tensions increase the demand for safe-haven instruments such as Gold.
• TRADE WAR: Trade wars increase global insecurity, increasing demand for safe-haven instruments such as Gold. US President Trump has declared that he will implement tariffs on various countries that, according to him, have treated the US unfairly in trade. In addition, U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs to other countries could start implementing April 2.

US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP AND GOLD DURING TRUMP’S FIRST PRESIDENCY

• STATISTICS: GOLD ROSE 10.85% DURING TRUMP’S FIRST YEAR OF PRESIDENCY (JANUARY 20, 2017 – JANUARY 20, 2018). In addition, Gold rose 55.38% during the entire first presidential term of Donald Trump (January 20, 2017 – January 20, 2021).

Data Source: MetaTrader 4 Platform

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

OTHER EVENTS:

• THURSDAY, MARCH 20, AT 12:30: US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: A higher-than-expected rating should be taken as positive for the price of gold, because the FED will then have one more reason to cut interest rates more aggressively to stimulate the economy. Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
• THURSDAY, MARCH 27, AT 12:30: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) (Q4): A lower-than-expected reading should be taken as positive for gold, because it could push the FED to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy. GDP measures the annualized change in the inflation – adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. This is the last reading for Q4 GDP in the USA, before the Q1 first reading is published in late April. The previous reading for Q4 reported in February was 2.3%.
• FRIDAY, MARCH 28, AT 12:30: PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (PCE) PRICE INDEX (FEBRUARY): A fall in this index could lead to a fall in interest rates which is supportive for gold. This index is a US-wide indicator of the average increase in prices for all domestic personal consumption. The data for the previous month came in at 2.5%.

ANALYSTS’ OPINION:

• GOLDMAN SACHS RAISED GOLD PRICE TARGE TO $3,100, WITH AN UPPER BOUNDARY AT $3,300.
• UBS RAISED GOLD PRICE TARGET TO $3,200.
• MORGAN STANLEY SET A BULL-CASE GOLD PRICE TARGET AT $3,400.

Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC

GOLD, March 19, 2025
Current Price: 3026

Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units

2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:00 (GMT) 19/03/2025

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
• Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.