GOLD weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: U.S. INSTITUTIONAL RISK
- US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP THREATENS FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL AND FEDERAL RESERVE’S INDEPENDENCE. U.S. President Donald Trump has increased pressure on the Federal Reserve, criticizing its current policy stance and specifically targeting Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Reports indicate that the White House is actively exploring legal options to remove Powell from his position. This direct interference with the central bank’s decision-making could raise serious concerns about the Fed’s independence.
- POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES: The perception that the Fed is no longer acting independently could undermine confidence in U.S. monetary policy. When investors believe that interest rate decisions are driven by political agendas rather than economic fundamentals, it tends to weaken the U.S. dollar. Historical precedents show that political pressure on central banks often leads to currency depreciation, while benefiting the Gold prices.
GEOPOLITICS: US – CHINA TRADE WAR
- FRIDAY, APRIL 11: CHINA RETALIATES AGAIN, RAISING TARIFFS ON US GOODS TO 125%: China has raised tariffs once again, now to 125%, up from 84%.
- WEDNESDAY, APRIL 9: US RAISED TARIFFS ON CHINESE GOODS TO 145%: The tariffs on China have been raised to 145%.
- WEDNESDAY, APRIL 9: CHINA RETALIATES, RAISING TARIFFS ON US GOODS TO 84%. China raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 84%, retaliating against Trump’s tariff increase on China to 104%.
- TUESDAY, APRIL 8: US RAISED TARIFFS ON CHINESE GOODS TO 104%.
- FRIDAY, APRIL 4: CHINA RETALIATES, RAISING TARIFFS ON US GOODS TO 34%.
- WEDNESDAY, APRIL 2: US RAISED TARIFFS ON CHINESE GOODS TO 54%.
EVENTS:
- THURSDAY, APRIL 24, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: A higher-than-expected rating could be positive for gold, because it will motivate the FED to cut interest rates more aggressively. This data measures the number of individuals who have filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. The previous number stands at 215K, which is lower than the report before, which stands at 223 K.
- WEDNESDAY, APRIL 30, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) (Q1). This is the first report for the first quarter of 2025. The last GDP data for Q4 2024 came out at 2.4%, down from the 3.1% in Q3 2024. However, if the data shows further declines, the US Dollar may weaken, potentially leading to a rise in gold prices.
- FRIDAY, MAY 2, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (APRIL): The U.S. labor market report will be in focus. In March, NFPs came in at 228K and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from the previous 4.1%. If the unemployment rate keeps the upward trend (4% in January, 4.1% in February and 4.2% in March), it could lead to a decrease in the value of the US dollar, potentially leading to a rise in gold prices.
ANALYSTS’ OPINION:
- GOLDMAN SACHS RAISED GOLD PRICE TARGET TO $3,700, FROM $3,300 WITH A TARGET RANGE OF $3,650 AND $3,950. UNDER EXTREME SCENARIOS, GOLD COULD RISE TO $4,500 BY THE END OF 2025. However, it could also move in the opposite direction.
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC
GOLD, April 22, 2025
Current Price: 3,450
|
GOLD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
3,950 |
|
|
3,700 |
|
|
3,550 |
|
|
3,360 |
|
|
3,330 |
|
|
3,300 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
GOLD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
50,000 |
25,000 |
10,000 |
-9,000 |
-12,000 |
-15,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
43,462 |
21,731 |
8,692 |
-7,823 |
-10,431 |
-13,039 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
37,378 |
18,689 |
7,476 |
-6,728 |
-8,971 |
-11,213 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
69,135 |
34,568 |
13,827 |
-12,444 |
-16,592 |
-20,741 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:30 (GMT+1) 22/04/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.