GOLD weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: US – CHINA TRADE WAR
- FRIDAY, APRIL 11: CHINA RETALIATES AGAIN, RAISING TARIFFS ON US GOODS TO 125%: China has raised tariffs once again, now to 125%, up from 84%.
- WEDNESDAY, APRIL 9: US RAISED TARIFFS ON CHINESE GOODS TO 145%: The tariffs on China have been raised to 145%.
- WEDNESDAY, APRIL 9: CHINA RETALIATES, RAISING TARIFFS ON US GOODS TO 84%. China raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 84%, retaliating against Trump’s tariff increase on China to 104%.
- TUESDAY, APRIL 8: US RAISED TARIFFS ON CHINESE GOODS TO 104%.
- FRIDAY, APRIL 4: CHINA RETALIATES, RAISING TARIFFS ON US GOODS TO 34%.
- WEDNESDAY, APRIL 2: US RAISED TARIFFS ON CHINESE GOODS TO 54%.
US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP AND GOLD DURING TRUMP’S FIRST PRESIDENCY
- STATISTICS: GOLD ROSE 10.85% DURING TRUMP’S FIRST YEAR OF PRESIDENCY (JANUARY 20, 2017 – JANUARY 20, 2018). In addition, Gold rose 55.38% during the entire first presidential term of Donald Trump (January 20, 2017 – January 20, 2021).
Data Source: MetaTrader 4 Platform
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
EVENTS:
- THURSDAY, APRIL 24, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: A higher-than-expected rating could be positive for gold, because it will motivate the FED to cut interest rates more aggressively. This data measures the number of individuals who have filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. The previous number stands at 215K, which is lower than the report before, which stands at 223 K.
- WEDNESDAY, APRIL 30, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) (Q1). This is the first report for the first quarter of 2025. The last GDP data for Q4 2024 came out at 2.4%, down from the 3.1% in Q3 2024. However, if the data shows further declines, the US Dollar may weaken, potentially leading to a rise in gold prices.
- FRIDAY, MAY 2, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (APRIL): The U.S. labor market report will be in focus. In March, NFPs came in at 228K and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from the previous 4.1%. If the unemployment rate keeps the upward trend (4% in January, 4.1% in February and 4.2% in March), it could lead to a decrease in the value of the US dollar, potentially leading to a rise in gold prices.
THE US FEDERAL RESERVE HAS BEGUN YET ANOTHER INTEREST RATE CUT CYCLE:
- FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE AT 4.5%. The US Federal Reserve decided to cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.50% points in September, 0.25% points in November, and 0.25% in December to bring interest rates down from the previous 5.5% to the current 4.5%.
- NEXT FED INTEREST RATE DECISION: May 7, 2025.
ANALYSTS’ OPINION:
- GOLDMAN SACHS RAISED GOLD PRICE TARGET TO $3,700, FROM $3,300 WITH A TARGET RANGE OF $3,650 AND $3,950. UNDER EXTREME SCENARIOS, GOLD COULD RISE TO $4,500 BY THE END OF 2025. However, it could also move in the opposite direction.
- DEUTSCHE BANK RAISED ITS GOLD PRICE TARGET TO $3,350 (Q4 2025) AND $3,700 (2026).
- UBS RAISED GOLD PRICE TARGET TO $3,500 FROM $3,200.
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC
GOLD, April 23, 2025
Current Price: 3,320
|
GOLD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
3,950 |
|
|
3,700 |
|
|
3,500 |
|
|
3,150 |
|
|
3,125 |
|
|
3,100 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
GOLD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
63,000 |
38,000 |
18,000 |
-17,000 |
-19,500 |
-22,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
55,104 |
33,237 |
15,744 |
-14,869 |
-17,056 |
-19,243 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
47,251 |
28,501 |
13,500 |
-12,750 |
-14,625 |
-16,500 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
86,940 |
52,440 |
24,840 |
-23,460 |
-26,910 |
-30,360 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:30 (GMT+1) 23/04/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.