NIO (#NIO) weekly special report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
THE COMPANY
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Nio is a Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer founded in 2014, known for its premium electric SUVs and sedans. The company focuses on innovative technologies, including battery swapping, autonomous driving, and a holistic customer service experience.
FINANCIAL RESULTS FOR Q2 2024: The company reported revenue of RMB 17.446 billion ($2.4 billion) in the second quarter, surpassing analysts' forecast of RMB 17.385 billion. This represents a 98.89% increase year-over-year and a 76.07% increase compared to the previous quarter. The strong results are largely attributable to robust delivery numbers (57,373), exceeding the expected range of 54,000-56,000. FORWARD GUIDANCE: Vehicle deliveries are expected to increase to between 61,000 and 63,000, representing a 10-13.7% year-over-year growth. Revenue is projected to range between RMB 19.11 billion and RMB 19.67 billion.
NEWS
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NIO PARTNERS WITH A BRITISH AI SOFTWARE STARTUP FOR REAL-TIME AI BATTERY TESTING (October 1): Nio has entered into an agreement with Monolith to test and improve electric vehicle battery packs in real time, using its battery swap service in Europe. Monolith already works with 10 of the world’s top 20 automakers to test EV batteries using machine learning algorithms. (Source: Reuters)
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NIO ANNOUNCES A $470 MILLION INVESTMENT IN NIO CHINA FROM THREE STRATEGIC CHINESE INVESTORS (September 29): According to CNEV Post, the company has entered into agreements with investors in Hefei, Anhui province. The capital injection will occur in two phases: 70% by the end of November 2024 and the remaining 30% by December 2024. This funding will help Nio secure long-term strategic advantages in technology, products, services, and its user community.
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NEW SUB-BRAND OF NIO, ONVO BEGINS DELIVERIES IN CHINA (September 29): Nio has started delivering its first Onvo models in 60 cities nationwide. The first model, the L60, is a family-oriented SUV. According to Deutsche Bank analyst Wang Bin, L60 orders have exceeded expectations, with over 30,000 units likely to be sold. (Source: electric-vehicles.com)
CHINESE NEWS:
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CHINA UNVEILS A SLATE OF EASING MEASURES TO SUPPORT THE ECONOMY: As the top global consumer, China has announced economic easing measures. People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng stated in a rare briefing that the PBOC will cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points before year-end, along with cuts to key lending rates. Additionally, the government plans to issue sovereign bonds worth approximately 2 trillion yuan to stimulate consumption and help local governments manage their debt.CHINESE LEADERS ARE COMMITTED TO MAKING THE NECESSARY FISCAL MOVES TO ACHIEVE 5% ECONOMIC GROWTH
OTHER ANALYSIS
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ACCORDING TO MORGAN STANLEY, THE FIRST MODEL OF ONVO IS THE NEXT BIG CATALYST FOR NIO: Following Nio’s Q2 earnings report, Morgan Stanley analyst Tim Hsiao published research indicating that the volume forecast for Q3 aligns with expectations. He also highlighted the new sub-brand, Onvo, as the company's next major growth catalyst.
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NEW NIO BRAND NAMED FIREFLY SET TO RELEASE: Nio’s CEO William Li described the new brand, Firefly, as akin to the Mini for BMW. According to 21st Century Business Herald, Firefly will debut in China at the end of 2024, with a European release planned for the first half of 2025. The company is targeting the lower-priced EV market with this new brand.
NIO: PRICE ACTION
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THE STOCK HAS TRADED AROUND 89.6% BELOW IT’S ALL-TIME HIGH of 66.99 (JANUARY 11, 2021). The stock’s price increased by 60.58% over the last three months, and it was last trading around $6.98. If a full recovery follows to its all-time highs, the stock could see an upside of around 859.74%. However, the price could decline further.
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ANALYSTS OPINIONS: JP Morgan forecasts: $8, US Tiger Securities forecasts $8, HSBC forecasts $7.9, Deutsche Bank forecasts $9.0, Citi forecasts $8.9
NIO, October 1, 2024
Current Price:6.98
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NIO |
Weekly |
|---|---|
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Trend direction |
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12.00 |
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10.00 |
|
|
8.50 |
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6.00 |
|
|
5.70 |
|
|
5.30 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
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NIO |
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Pivot Points |
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Profit or loss in $ |
5,020.00 |
3,020.00 |
1,520.00 |
-980.00 |
-1,280.00 |
-1,680.00 |
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Profit or loss in €2 |
4,527.78 |
2,723.89 |
1,370.96 |
-883.91 |
-1,154.49 |
-1,515.27 |
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Profit or loss in £2 |
3,769.07 |
2,267.45 |
1,141.23 |
-735.79 |
-961.04 |
-1,261.36 |
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Profit or loss in C$2 |
6,789.30 |
4,084.40 |
2,055.72 |
-1,325.40 |
-1,731.14 |
-2,272.12 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 12:15 (GMT+1) 01/10/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
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You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
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Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.