Silver Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS TO SUPPORT DEMAND FOR SAFE- HAVEN INSTRUMENTS
- ISRAEL EXPECTED TO ATTACK TARGETS IN IRAN BEFORE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ON NOVEMBER 5. According to the CNN, US officials anticipate that Israel may retaliate against Iran before the November 5 American presidential election. Plans to retaliate against Iran have been the subject of intense internal debate and the timing is not directly linked to the presidential election. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is aware that a counterstrike against Iran could significantly affect the presidential race, complicating diplomatic efforts between Israel and the US for the last several months.
- US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (NOVEMBER 5). Silver price volatility often increases during U.S. election periods due to the uncertainty surrounding economic policies, market stability, and geopolitical dynamics that accompany such events. Recent polls showed Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump set for a tight presidential race.
- GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS INCREASE DEMAND FOR THE SAFEN-HAVEN GOLD AND SILVER: Investors tend to purchase Gold and Silver in times of distress due to their ability to store value through time, and as tensions have again risen in the Middle East, market participants shifted to Gold and Silver to protect their investments. To this end, silver prices could be expected to rise in value in the period ahead. However, they could also decline.
CENTRAL BANKS: INTEREST RATE CUT DECISION
- BREAKING (SEPTEMBER 18): FEDERAL RESERVE ANNOUNCED ITS FIRST INTEREST RATE CUT SINCE 2020. US Federal Reserve decided to cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.50% points on September 18, to 5.00% from the previous 5.50%. The bank expects to cut rates two more times in 2024 to slash its benchmark rate to 4.5% by the end of 2024. The bank expects rates to fall to 3.5% in 2025 and further down to 2.9% in 2026.
- NEXT FED INTEREST RATE DECISION: November 7, 2024. As of September 23, the market sees better chances for 25 basis points interest rates cut. This could bring current rates of 5.00% down to either 4.75%.
OTHER EVENTS:
- US NONFARM PAYROLLS AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (OCTOBER) (FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 1 AT 13:30 GMT+1). The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the same as in September, but the Fed said that it could rise to 4.4% this year and 2025. Any further decrease can support market expectations that the Fed could start considering bigger interest rate cuts at the November meeting.
ANALYST EXPECTATIONS
- UBS: The bank targets a price of $36.
- CITIGROUP: The bank targets a price of $40.
PRICE ACTION
- ALL-TIME HIGH PRICE (2011): $49.80. Silver jumped to $49.80 in 2011, during the debt crisis in Europe. Currently, Silver trades around $34.00 and if full recovery is made this could offer an upside potential of around 47%.
Silver, October 21, 2024
Current Price: 34.00
|
SILVER |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
49.80 |
|
|
40.00 |
|
|
36.00 |
|
|
32.50 |
|
|
32.00 |
|
|
31.50 |
Example of calculation based on trend direction for 1.00 Lot*
|
SILVER |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
158,000.00 |
60,000.00 |
20,000.00 |
-15,000.00 |
-20,000.00 |
-25,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
145,569.35 |
55,279.50 |
18,426.50 |
-13,819.87 |
-18,426.50 |
-23,033.12 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
121,268.41 |
46,051.29 |
15,350.43 |
-11,512.82 |
-15,350.43 |
-19,188.04 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
218,290.84 |
82,895.25 |
27,631.75 |
-20,723.81 |
-27,631.75 |
-34,539.69 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10.000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 11:55 (GMT+1) 21/10/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.