EUR/USD Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
EVENTS:
- FRIDAY, DECEMBER 20 at 13:30 GMT: PCE (PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE) PRICE INDEX (NOVEMBER). This is an indicator of the average increases in prices for all domestic personal consumption and it is Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. A higher-than-expected result is generally supportive for the US Dollar because it makes the FED more likely to lower interest rates, which is positive for the US dollar. The price index for the previous month was 2.3%. The core price index (PCE minus food and energy prices) was 2.8% for the previous month.
DEVELOPING POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES: EUROZONE
- GERMAN GOVERNMENT LED BY OLAF SCHOLZ LOST A CONFIDENCE VOTE ON MONDAY (DECEMBER 16). On Monday, the German parliament agreed to Chancellor Olaf Scholz's request to withdraw its vote of confidence in him and his government. This decision paves the way for an early election on February 23, 2025, following the breakdown of his government. Scholz's three-party coalition fell apart last month after the pro-market Free Democrats quit in a row over governmental debt, leaving his Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens without a parliamentary majority just as Germany faces a deepening economic crisis.
- FRENCH PRESIDENT MACRON APPOINTED NEW PRIME MINISTER (FRANCOIS BAYROU); RATING AGENCY MOODY’S DOWNGRADED THE FRENCH DEBT RATING. According to Reuters, Ratings agency Moody's downgraded France's credit rating to "Aa3" from "Aa2," in a move that is likely to add pressure on the country's government to tackle its debt and deficit woes. It is three levels below the maximum rating given by Moody's. Rival credit rating agencies, S&P and Fitch, have already cut France to levels equivalent to the cut Moody’s made.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK TO KEEP CUTTING RATES:
- EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (ECB) INTEREST RATE CUT DECISION (DECEMBER). The ECB cut its benchmark interest rate in December from 3.40% to the current 3.15%, and investors expect the ECB could continue with their rate-cutting cycle. The benchmark interest rate in the Eurozone is now expected to be slashed below 3.15%. If the ECB does decide to continue cutting rates, this could push the EURO lower. NEXT MEETING: January 30, 2025 at 13:15 GMT.
ANALYST OPINION:
- HSBC: The bank forecasts that the EUR/USD will fall below parity to 0.99 by the end of 2025.
- BNP Paribas: The bank forecasts that the EUR/USD will fall to parity of 1.0000 in 2025
EURUSD, DECEMBER 19, 2024
Current Price: 1.0410
|
EUR/USD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1.0600 |
|
|
1.0570 |
|
|
1.0530 |
|
|
1.0280 |
|
|
1.0100 |
|
|
1.0000 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
EUR/USD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
-1,900 |
-1,600 |
-1,200 |
1,300 |
3,100 |
4,100 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
-1,825 |
-1,537 |
-1,153 |
1,249 |
2,978 |
3,939 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
-1,510 |
-1,272 |
-954 |
1,033 |
2,464 |
3,258 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
-2,730 |
-2,299 |
-1,725 |
1,868 |
4,455 |
5,892 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100.000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 14:20 (GMT) 19/12/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.