Natural Gas weekly special report based On 1 Lot Calculation:
FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS:
- FEARS OVER NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES IN EUROPE:
- On January 1, 2025, Ukraine's transit agreement for Russian gas, supplying 8% of Europe’s imports, will expire. Despite the ongoing war, Russian gas has continued to flow through Ukraine, but Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia are likely to face disruptions.
- Qatar, a key LNG supplier, has warned it could stop exports to the EU if fined under the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, which imposes penalties for human rights and environmental violations. Energy Minister Saad Sherida alKaabi has criticized the policy.
- U.S. Presidentelect Donald Trump has demanded that EU countries increase purchases of American gas or face trade tariffs.
- TRUMP PRESIDENCY: A POTENTIAL POLICY SHIFT- Donald Trump’s return to the presidency could significantly change the natural gas sector. Among the expected shifts is a possible lifting of LNG export restrictions imposed during the Biden administration with potential implications:
- This would enable U.S. producers to meet surging international LNG demand, particularly from Europe.
- While expanded exports could boost U.S. energy dominance, they could also tighten domestic supplies, leading to upward pressure on natural gas prices.
- A proenergy Trump administration could also accelerate investments in pipelines and LNG export terminals, enhancing long-term market growth.
- NATURAL GAS PRICE REACTION ON INCREASED EXPORT IN THE PAST: The expansion of LNG export capacity in 2021 and 2022, in the United States drove a significant rise in natural gas prices. By mid-2022, the U.S. became the largest LNG exporter, capturing over 20% of the global market. Prices surged by 41% in 2021 and an additional 20% in 2022, reaching a record $9.66 in June 2022.
In January 2024, President Biden's administration banned new LNG export projects, causing natural gas prices to drop and remain low throughout the year. Following Donald Trump’s election victory in November, prices surged, reaching $3.63 by November 22.
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
WEATHER:
● HIGHER DEMAND DURING WINTER MONTHS: With the arrival of winter, demand for natural gas is expected to climb sharply as homes and businesses increase heating usage. This seasonal surge typically tightens supplies and drives prices higher. At the same time, heightened global competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG), particularly from Europe and Asia, could further strain the market and contribute to price increases.
NATURAL GAS, December 23, 2024
Current Price: 3.44
|
NATURAL GAS |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
5.00 |
|
|
4.50 |
|
|
4.00 |
|
|
2.90 |
|
|
2.70 |
|
|
2.50 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
15,600.00 |
10,600.00 |
5,600.00 |
-4,900.00 |
-6,400.00 |
-8,400.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
15,015.00 |
10,202.50 |
5,390.00 |
-4,716.25 |
-6,160.00 |
-8,085.00 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
12,460.01 |
8,466.42 |
4,472.83 |
-3,913.72 |
-5,111.80 |
-6,709.24 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
22,485.68 |
15,278.73 |
8,071.78 |
-7,062.81 |
-9,224.89 |
-12,107.67 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10 000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:20 (GMT) 23/12/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit