Palladium

Palladium weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:

PALLADIUM USE AND MARKET SHARE:

• Palladium is mostly used in catalytic converters by the car industry to reduce harmful gas emissions while tightening regulation is forcing automakers to put more Palladium into each vehicle, which in turn could keep the demand outlook positive. Palladium has also been used in fuel cells to generate power.
• MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): Russia is the largest producer holding 43% of the markets, while South Africa is the second largest with 33.00% of the markets. Canada is third on the list with 9.5% of the global production.
• MARKET SHARE (CONSUMERS): China is the largest Palladium consumer with 31%, while Europe and North America (USA) hold 20% each. Japan stands at 11%.
• RUSSIA IS EXPECTED TO CUT PRODUCTION IN 2024: NORNICKEL, THE LARGEST PALLADIUM PRODUCER IN THE WORLD, TO CUT PRODUCTION IN 2024. The Russian miner said the output of the metal could fall almost 15% to as low as 2.3 million ounces. The company said that its production was down 17% year on year in Q4 of 2023.

NEWS:

• BREAKING (NOVEMBER 8): CHINA ANNOUNCED NEW PLANS TO INCREASE SUPPORT TO ITS ECONOMY. The new package includes 6 trillion yuan (~840 billion dollars), to resolve the dept issues related to local government debt.
• BREAKING (OCTOBER 22): U.S. ASKS GROUP-7 TO CONSIDER SANCTIONS ON RUSSIAN PALLADIUM. According to Bloomberg, the US asked Group of Seven allies to consider sanctions on Russian palladium and titanium the Biden administration mulls fresh ways to squeeze President Vladimir Putin’s war machine. Biden administration officials floated the possibility during a meeting of G-7 deputy finance ministers on Tuesday (October 22) in Washington.
• CHINA ANNOUNCED A NEW BIG STIMULUS PACKAGE TO SUPPORT THEIR ECONOMY: The Chinese Central Bank announced last week measures including cutting interest rates on mortgages, cutting the reserve requirement ratio for commercial banks and other actions that could unleash around 14 billion dollars. The market also expects China to increase stimulus from the fiscal side, with measures that could unleash near 300 billion dollars of stimulus. All in all, China is on its way to inject the largest stimulus package since the Pandemic, worth more than 400 billion dollars.

EVENTS (USA):

• US INFLATION RATE (CPI) (OCTOBER) (WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 13 AT 13:30 GMT). The US is slated to report its CPI figure for the month of October. The top-line CPI for September came in at 2.4%. Should CPI come in below this number the FED will most likely need to keep cutting rates, which could provide support for commodities such as Palladium.

EVENTS (CHINA):

• SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 9 AT 01:30 GMT: CHINA INFLATION (CPI) (PREVIOUS: 0.4% down from 0.6%)
• FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 15 AT 02:00 GMT: CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (PREVIOUS: 5.4% up from 4.5%)

PRICE ACTION:

• PALLADIUM HAS TRADED 71% BELOW ITS ALL-TIME HIGH OF $3,409 (March 2022). Palladium currently trades around $1000, and if a full recovery follows then on can expect an upside of around 240%. The price, however, could also decline.
• SUPPORT AREA: $900 – $1,000. Palladium has since 2017 maintained a strong support area between $900 and $1,000.

GRAPH: MONTHLY (2017- 2027)

PALLADIUM, November 8, 2024
Current Price: 1000

Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units

2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 12:00 (GMT) 08/11/2024

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
• Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.