Alibaba (#ALIBABA) weekly special report based On 1 Lot Calculation:
ALIBABA: COMPANY
- ALIBABA IS THE ONE OF THE LARGEST E-COMMERCE IN THE WORLD:
E-COMMERCE MARKET SHARE (COUNTRY) China is estimated to claim 52.1% of the global market, USA with 19%, UK with 4.8% and Japan with 3.0%. Rest of the world covers 21.1%.
E-COMMERCE MARKET SHARE (COMPANY) Alibaba (Taobao and Tmall) claimed 24.00%, while Amazon took up 13% of the global e- commerce market. JD.com claimed 9.20% of the market. - ALIBABA IN THE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI) WORLD: Alibaba has showed off its generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) model (Tongyi Qianwen) (its version of the tech that powers chatbot sensation ChatGPT), and said it would be integrated into all of the company's apps in the near future.
ALIBABA: ANALYSIS AND EVENTS
- EVENT (EXPECTED: MAY 26, PREMARKET) Q1 EARNINGS REPORT. According to Bloomberg, Alibaba is expected to show a growth rate of 3.16% in revenue for the Q1 of 2023 (210.51 billion Yuan) compared with Q1 of 2022 (204.05 billion Yuan). Alibaba’s net income in Q1 of 2023 (25.25 billion yuan) is expected to show a growth rate of 11.10% with respect to Q1 of 2022 (22.73 billion Yuan).
- CHINA GOVERNMENT PRESSURE ON ALIBABA REDUCED as Alibaba decides to split into six units. Alibaba plans to split into six business units and promises to yield several initial public offerings, while allowing quicker response to a rapidly-changing market environment. Analysts say the plan offers another indication that the crackdown may be done and dusted.
ALIBABA: PRICE ACTION
- THE STOCK FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 OF $57.82 (OCTOBER 24, 2022), REPRESENTING A DECLINE OF 82% FROM ITS ALL- TIME HIGH OF $319.32 (OCTOBER 2020). Alibaba was last trading around $85, and if a full recovery follows to recent all- time highs, the stock could see an upside of around 275%, however the price could also decline further.
- ALIBABA STOCK TRADES CLOSE TO ITS 2014 IPO PRICE OF $68: Alibaba currently trades around $85, which is only around 20 dollars above its IPO (Initial Public Offering) price of $68. In other words, when Alibaba first became public company in 2014, it started trading at $68. Almost 10 years later, Alibaba’s stock trades close to that rate again.
- ANALYSTS OPINIONS: Goldman Sachs forecasts $136. JPMorgan forecasts $140. Barclays forecasts $144. Citigroup forecasts $154.
ALIBABA: TECHNICAL REVIEW
- ALIBABA HAS BEEN TRADING CLOSE TO THE LOWER BOUNDRY OF THE RANGE OF $80 - $120 THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE EARLY 2022. This would be the fifth time to trade near or at the lower boundary of the channel of $80. After testing the support of $80, Alibaba would tend to come back up to $120 (tested three time since February 2022), which is the upper boundary of this channel.
Graph: Alibaba stock (2019- 2023)
Source: MetaTrader 4 Platform
#ALIBABA, April 25, 2023
Current Price:85
|
Alibaba |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
120 |
|
|
105 |
|
|
96 |
|
|
75 |
|
|
72 |
|
|
70 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Alibaba |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
35,000 |
20,000 |
11,000 |
-10,000 |
-13,000 |
-15,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
31,743 |
18,139 |
9,976 |
-9,069 |
-11,790 |
-13,604 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
28,073 |
16,041 |
8,823 |
-8,021 |
-10,427 |
-12,031 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
47,506 |
27,146 |
14,931 |
-13,573 |
-17,645 |
-20,360 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 13:30 (GMT+1) 25/04/2023
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