AUD/USD weekly special report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: US PRESIDENT-ELECT DONALD TRUMP TAKES OFFICE ON JANUARY 20, 2025
- TRADE WAR: The potential implementation of future tariffs by Trump, coupled with uncertainty regarding geopolitical issues such as Greenland's strategic interest and trade relations with Canada, could contribute to the strengthening of the US dollar. Tariffs could reduce the trade deficit and boost demand for the dollar as trade flows shift toward domestic production. Additionally, geopolitical tensions often enhance the dollar's appeal as a safe-haven currency.
EVENTS:
- THURSDAY, JANUARY 23 AT 13:30 GMT: INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS. After stronger-than-expected labor market results in December, both the Unemployment rate and Non-Farm payrolls, the Federal Reserve is likely to take a more cautious approach toward future interest rate cuts. Reports such as Initial Unemployment Claims could further reinforce the Federal Reserve's position. If this report reveals a lower-than-expected number of claims, it could provide additional support for the US dollar's strength.
- WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 29 AT 0:30 GMT: INFLATION (CPI) IN FOURTH QUARTER (Q4) IN AUSTRALIA. Inflation figures for the third quarter of 2024 showed the headline inflation rate fell to 2.8%, down from 3.8% in October. While this remains above the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target band, it signals a cooling inflation trend. This development strengthens the case for the RBA to consider cutting interest rates for the first time in over a year at its next meeting on February 17–18. If fourth-quarter inflation shows a further decline, it could place additional downward pressure on the Australian dollar.
- WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 29 AT 19:00 GMT: FED INTEREST RATE DECISION. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 97.3% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged, with the first rate cut expected no earlier than June. Meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve's last session revealed concerns about inflation and the potential impact of President-elect Donald Trump’s policies on inflation. These concerns led the Fed to lower its projection for interest rate cuts in 2025 from four, as estimated during September’s meeting, to two.
RESERVE BANKS OF AUSTRALIA MAY CUT INTEREST RATE FOR THE FIRST TIME AFTER 13 MONTHS IN FEBRUARY
- Several major banks are speculating that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could cut interest rates in February, which can further weaken Australian currency. This follows the central bank’s decision to maintain its cash rate at 4.35% for the 13th consecutive month. The rise in Australia’s unemployment rate to 4% in December adds weight to the case for a potential rate cut in early 2025.
AUDUSD, January 16, 2025
Current Price: 0.62125
|
AUD/USD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
0.6400 |
|
|
0.6360 |
|
|
0.6320 |
|
|
0.6100 |
|
|
0.6000 |
|
|
0.5900 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
AUD/USD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
-1,875 |
-1,475 |
-1,075 |
1,125 |
2,125 |
3,125 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
-1,822 |
-1,434 |
-1,045 |
1,093 |
2,065 |
3,037 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
-1,536 |
-1,208 |
-881 |
921 |
1,741 |
2,560 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
-2,434 |
-1,915 |
-1,396 |
1,460 |
2,759 |
4,057 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:15 (GMT) 16/01/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit