AUD/USD weekly special report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: TRADE WAR
- US PRESIDENT TRUMP TO ANNOUNCE 25% TARIFFS ON STEEL AND ALUMINIUM IN LATEST TRADE ESCALATION. Despite Australia's free trade agreement with the U.S., which currently exempts Australian aluminum, iron, and steel from import taxes, new tariffs threaten to disrupt this arrangement. In 2023, Australia exported $1 billion worth of these materials to the U.S., accounting for about 5% of Australia's total exports to the country, valued at $19 billion. These tariffs could significantly impact Australia's economy by reducing demand for exports, lowering revenues in key industries. This, in turn, may weaken the Australian dollar due to decreased foreign exchange earnings, potentially affecting inflation and import costs. The Australian government is working to secure exemptions to mitigate these risks.
- TRADE WAR: Broad U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods could slow China's economic growth by reducing its export revenues and production. As Australia's largest trading partner, a slowdown in China's economy would likely decrease demand for key Australian exports such as iron ore, coal, and agricultural products putting downward pressure on the Australian dollar (AUD).
EVENTS:
- TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 11, AT 15:00 GMT AND WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 12 AT 15:00 GMT: FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL TESTIMONY BEFORE CONGRESS. Fed Chair Powell is expected to deliver his regularly scheduled testimony to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. His remarks come after the Fed held interest rates steady in January (4.5%) after cutting rates in the prior three meetings (from 5.5% to 4.5%) as the central bank pointed to a strong job market and concerns over rising inflation
- THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 12 AT 13:30 (GMT): INFLATION IN JANUARY IN U.S. Inflation in the U.S. increased from 2.7% to 2.9% in December, marking the highest rate since June of the previous year but still in line with expectations. Economists predict that inflation will remain steady at 2.9% for January. If Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures exceed expectations, it could strengthen the U.S. dollar (USD), as the Federal Reserve may maintain its stance of implementing only two additional interest rate cuts this year.
- WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 18 AT 3:30 (GMT): RBA INTEREST RATE DECISION. Several major banks are speculating that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might cut interest rates in February which can further weaken Australian currency. This follows the central bank’s decision to maintain its cash rate at 4.35% for the 13th consecutive month. The rise in Australia’s unemployment rate to 4% in December adds weight to the case for a potential rate cut in early 2025.
AUDUSD, February 10, 2025
Current Price: 0.62705
|
AUD/USD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
0.6450 |
|
|
0.6400 |
|
|
0.6380 |
|
|
0.6150 |
|
|
0.6050 |
|
|
0.5850 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
AUD/USD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
-1,795 |
-1,295 |
-1,095 |
1,205 |
2,205 |
4,205 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
-1,740 |
-1,255 |
-1,061 |
1,168 |
2,137 |
4,075 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
-1,449 |
-1,045 |
-884 |
973 |
1,780 |
3,394 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
-2,330 |
-1,681 |
-1,421 |
1,564 |
2,862 |
5,459 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 13:05(GMT) 10/02/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit