AUD/USD weekly special report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: TRADE WAR
- WEDNESDAY, APRIL 2: US PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL ANNOUNCE RECIPROCAL TARIFFS. The US President has already put a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the country, including those from Australia. Trump’s plan for reciprocal tariffs aims to match the import duties that other countries impose on U.S. goods. Set to begin on April 2, the policy targets what he sees as unfair trade imbalances by imposing equal tariffs on imports from countries that tax American exports at higher rates. Although Australia could avoid direct tariffs, the lack of clarity around exemptions and broader trade impacts is fueling caution among investors.
- TRADE WAR: Broad U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods could slow China's economic growth by reducing its export revenues and production. As Australia's largest trading partner, a slowdown in China's economy would likely decrease demand for key Australian exports such as iron ore, coal, and agricultural products, putting downward pressure on the Australian dollar (AUD).
EVENTS:
- FRIDAY, MARCH 28 AT 12:30 GMT: US PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE (PCE) PRICE INDEX (FEBRUARY). The PCE Price Index fell in January from 2.9% to 2.6%. However, if future data shows the index stabilizing or rising again, the Federal Reserve could decide not to go beyond the planned two interest rate cuts this year. This could have a positive impact on the U.S. dollar.
- TUESDAY, APRIL 1 AT 03:30 GMT: RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) INTEREST RATE DECISION. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in April, following its first rate cut in four years in February (4.1% down from the previous 4.35%). However, concerns over Trump’s tariffs and a mixed Australian jobs report have reinforced expectations of another potential rate cut in May.
- FRIDAY, APRIL 4 AT 12:30 GMT: US NONFARM PAYROLLS AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (MARCH). U.S. unemployment rose in February to 4.1%, up from 4.0%, following a wave of layoffs linked to the Trump administration. Labor market data remains one of the key indicators the Federal Reserve considers when making interest rate decisions. If the labor market stabilizes, this could have a positive impact on the U.S. dollar.
AUDUSD, March 26, 2025
Current Price: 0.6325
|
AUD/USD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
0.6480 |
|
|
0.6450 |
|
|
0.6415 |
|
|
0.6230 |
|
|
0.6150 |
|
|
0.6090 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
AUD/USD |
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|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
-1,550 |
-1,250 |
-900 |
950 |
1,750 |
2,350 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
-1,435 |
-1,157 |
-833 |
880 |
1,620 |
2,176 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
-1,202 |
-969 |
-698 |
737 |
1,357 |
1,822 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
-2,209 |
-1,781 |
-1,283 |
1,354 |
2,494 |
3,349 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:50 (GMT) 26/03/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit