COCOA (#COCOA) Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
TECHNICAL REVIEW
- COCOA HAS TESTED ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE MARCH 2024 (6419).
- COCOA PRICES HAVE TESTED THE MARK OF $7000 (OR NEAR) 8 TIMES SINCE MAY 2024. This is the 9th time that the Cocoa prices are testing levels near the mark of $7000.
GRAPH (DAILY): APRIL 2024 - OCTOBER 2024
- 2024 STATISTICS: COCOA TENDS TO RECOVER BY AROUND 26% AFTER TESTING THE MARK OF $7000 OR NEAR IT.
DATA SOURCE: Fortrade MetaTrader 4
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
KEY FUNDAMENTALS:
- TOP COCOA PRODUCERS (tons): 1. Ivory Coast - 2.200m, 2. Ghana - 1.100m, 3. Indonesia - 0.667m, 4. Ecuador - 0.337m, 5. Cameroon - 0.300m.
- SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS: Ghana and Ivory Coast, which produce over 60% of the world's cocoa, are facing severe harvest problems.
- CONSUMER TRENDS: Traditional consumer markets for cocoa include Europe, North America, and South America, where consumption has shown stagnation in recent years.
- DEMAND GROWTH (2024- 2030): 4.8% PER YEAR EXPECTED GROWTH. The Global Cocoa Market size is expected to reach $38.3 billion by 2030, rising at a market growth of 4.8% Cumulative Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) during the forecast period. Expectations are that the demand for cocoa will increase especially from emerging and developing countries like China and India, where a cocoa consumption growth rate is around 20% and 10% respectively. (Source: kbvresearch.com)
NEWS AND EVENTS
- SEPTEMBER 2024 MONTHLY COCOA MARKET REVIEW BY THE INTERNATIONAL COCOA ORGANIZATION (ICCO): On 11 September 2024, Ghana officially opened the 2024/25 season. Later, on 1 October, Ivory Coast opened the new season. Farmers said they were able to get two harvests per month in October, and that the main crop's harvesting would continue in November and December before reaching its peak in December.
- MARKET DEFICIT: Earlier in their quarterly report, the ICCO specified that current market deficit amounts to 439,000 million tons, up from previous estimates of 374,000 million tons.
COCOA (#COCOA) October 25, 2024
Current Price: 6710
|
Cocoa |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
10,000 |
|
|
9,000 |
|
|
8,000 |
|
|
6,000 |
|
|
5,900 |
|
|
5,800 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Cocoa |
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
32,900 |
22,900 |
12,900 |
-7,100 |
-8,100 |
-9,100 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
30,395 |
21,156 |
11,918 |
-6,559 |
-7,483 |
-8,407 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
25,400 |
17,679 |
9,959 |
-5,481 |
-6,253 |
-7,025 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
45,557 |
31,710 |
17,863 |
-9,831 |
-11,216 |
-12,601 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 12:58 (GMT+1) 25/10/2024
There is a possibility to use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.