Copper Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS:
- COPPER’S ESSENTIAL ROLE: Copper is an essential metal with a long history of use in various industries, making it a valuable commodity.
- RENEWABLE ENERGY TRANSITION: Copper is pivotal to the global transition towards renewable energy, and it plays a key role in the electrification of the global vehicle fleet and the adoption of renewable energy sources.
SUPPLY SIDE:
- TOP COPPER PRODUCERS: The biggest producers of copper are: Chile (27% of world total); China (8%); Peru (8%); Democratic republic of Congo (6%), Australia (5%), Mexico (5%), Russia (3%), and Canada (2%).
- SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS: Supply instability translates to higher prices of copper. Almost all producer countries have one or more of the following supply disruptions: labor strikes, environmental regulations and hazards, political challenges, poverty and bad infrastructure, and government instability. This is especially true for Chile, which is host to the biggest copper production and the biggest instability in output.
- SUPPLY GROWTH: The output growth of copper is around 1-2%, doubling the supply market, on average, every 72 years.
DEMAND SIDE:
- TOP COPPER CONSUMERS: The biggest consumers of copper are: China (52% of the world’s total), the United States (7%), The European Union (8%), and Japan (4%).
- TOP COPPER INDUSTRIES: Copper is heavily demanded in the EV industry, renewable energy industry (wind and solar farms), electrical infrastructure, telecommunications, and construction. The EV and green industries show the biggest growth rates (10-15% and 5%, respectively) and will push the overall copper growth rate even higher in the future.
- DEMAND GROWTH: Historically, global copper demand has grown at a rate of around 2%-3%, doubling the demand for copper, on average, every 36 to 24 years. As it stands, demand will far outpace supply in the coming decades.
EVENTS:
- SATURDAY, MARCH 01, AT 01:30 GMT: CHINA COMPOSITE PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX (PMI) (FEBRUARY): A higher-than-expected reading is considered positive for the price of copper because it signals strong economic conditions and a higher demand for copper. Results above 50 indicate an expansion in the sector and vice versa. China’s PMI provides an early indication each month of economic activities in the overall economy sector.
- SATURDAY, MARCH 01, AT 01:30 GMT: CHINA MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX (PMI) (FEBRUARY): A higher-than-expected reading is considered positive positive for the price of copper because it signals strong manufacturing conditions and a higher demand for copper. Results above 50 indicate an expansion in the sector and vice versa. China’s PMI provides an early indication each month of economic activities in the manufacturing sector.
PRICE ACTION:
- COPPER HAS TRADED AROUND 10% BELOW ITS ALL- TIME HIGH OF $5.1952 (May 20, 2024). Copper was last trading around $4.6850, and if a full recovery follows to recent all-time highs, the commodity could see an upside of around 11%. However, the price could decline further.
COPPER, February 13, 2025
Current Price: 4.6850
|
COPPER |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
5.2000 |
|
|
5.1000 |
|
|
4.9000 |
|
|
4.5000 |
|
|
4.3500 |
|
|
4.2000 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
5,150 |
4,150 |
2,150 |
-1,850 |
-3,350 |
-4,850 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
4,954 |
3,992 |
2,068 |
-1,779 |
-3,222 |
-4,665 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
4,130 |
3,328 |
1,724 |
-1,483 |
-2,686 |
-3,889 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
7,359 |
5,930 |
3,072 |
-2,643 |
-4,787 |
-6,930 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 14:00 (GMT) 13/02/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.