Copper Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: US COPPER TARIFF FEARS SENT PRICES HIGH:
- BREAKING (MARCH 26): COPPER PRICE HIT A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH ($5.3702) ON REPORTS THAT US PRESIDENT TRUMP COULD IMPLEMENT COPPER IMPORT TARIFFS WITHIN WEEKS (AHEAD OF PREVIOUS SCHEDULE). Estimates have shown that the USA has imported 500,000 tons of copper over the past period, up from 70,000 tons monthly normally. This massive amount of copper being transported to the U.S. could push copper prices to record highs and potentially leave top consumer China and the rest of the world critically short of copper supplies. (Source: Bloomberg and Reuters)
- POTENTIAL U.S. TARIFFS ON COPPER: There are reports that U.S. President Donald Trump could implement copper tariffs within weeks (ahead of the previous schedule). The U.S. relies on imports for 45% of its copper consumption, and a 25% tariff could disrupt supply chains.
SUPPLY SIDE:
- TOP COPPER PRODUCERS: The biggest producers of copper are: Chile (27% of world total), China (8%), Peru (8%), Democratic republic of Congo (6%), Australia (5%), Mexico (5%), Russia (3%), and Canada (2%).
DEMAND SIDE:
- TOP COPPER CONSUMERS: The biggest consumers of copper are: China (52% of the world’s total), the United States (7%), The European Union (8%), and Japan (4%).
- TOP COPPER INDUSTRIES: Copper is heavily demanded in the EV industry, renewable energy industry (wind and solar farms), electrical infrastructure, telecommunications, and construction. The EV and green industries show the biggest growth rates (10-15% and 5%, respectively) and are expected to push the overall copper growth rate even higher in the future.
EVENTS (CHINA):
- THURSDAY, APRIL 10 AT 02:30 GMT+1: CHINA INFLATION (CPI) (MARCH) (PREVIOUS: -0.7%). Stronger-than-expected CPI data could signal an expanding Chinese economy and industrial activity.
- SATURDAY, APRIL 12 AT 08:10 GMT+1: CHINA EXPORT/IMPORT (MARCH) (EXPORT PREVIOUS: +2.3%, IMPORT PREVIOUS: -8.4%) Stronger-than-expected import and export data could indicate rising domestic demand and industrial activity in China, the world's largest consumer of copper.
- WEDNESDAY, APRIL 16 AT 03:00 GMT+1: CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (MARCH). (PREVIOUS: +5.9%). Stronger-than-expected industrial data could indicate rising domestic demand and industrial activity in China, the world's largest consumer of copper.
- WEDNESDAY, APRIL 16 AT 03:00 GMT+1: CHINA GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) (Q1). (PREVIOUS: +5.4%). Stronger-than-expected gross domestic product (GDP) data could indicate rising economic activity in China, the world's largest consumer of copper.
EVENTS (USA):
- FRIDAY, APRIL 4 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US NONFARM PAYROLLS AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (MARCH) (PREVIOUS: 151K; PREVIOUS: 4.1%). Stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls and a lower unemployment rate could signal a resilient labor market and economic growth, potentially boosting consumer spending and industrial activity, which could increase demand for copper and support higher prices.
- FRIDAY, APRIL 4 AT 16:25 GMT+1: US FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL SPEAKS. Mr. Powell speaks on Economic Outlook at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference, Arlington, Virginia.
- THURSDAY, APRIL 10 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US INFLATION (CPI) (MARCH) (PREVIOUS: 2.8%). A smaller-than-expected number could be supportive for copper because then the FED could be encouraged to lower interest rate cuts. This index measures the change in the price of the goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. Inflation in February came in at 2.8%, which was lower than analysts’ expectations of 2.9%.
ANALYSTS OPINION:
- GOLDMAN SACHS SEES COPPER PRICE BETWEEN $5 and $5.50: Goldman Sachs expects a deficit of 180.000 tons in 2025 and 250.000 tons in 2026.
COPPER, April 4, 2025
Current Price: 4.7200
|
COPPER |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
5.5000 |
|
|
5.2500 |
|
|
5.0000 |
|
|
4.4500 |
|
|
4.3500 |
|
|
4.3000 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
COPPER
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
7,800 |
5,300 |
2,800 |
-2,700 |
-3,700 |
-4,700 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
7,093 |
4,820 |
2,546 |
-2,455 |
-3,365 |
-4,274 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
5,997 |
4,075 |
2,153 |
-2,076 |
-2,845 |
-3,614 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
11,022 |
7,489 |
3,956 |
-3,815 |
-5,228 |
-6,641 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10 000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:30 (GMT+1) 04/04/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit