Crude Oil weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
EVENTS:
- OPEC+ MEETING (NOVEMBER 30): OPEC+ MEMBERS AGREED ADDITIONAL PRODUCTION CUTS OF AROUND 900,000 BARRELS A DAY FROM JANUARY 1, 2024. Saudi Arabia said it will extend its voluntary cuts of 1 million barrels a day through Q1 of 2024, while Russia said that in addition to current export cuts of 300,000 barrels a day they will add another 200,000 barrels a day of oil export cut. Rest of the ~680,000 barrels a day cuts will be provided by other OPEC+ members. Iraq is cutting by 223,000 bpd, the United Arab Emirates by 163,000 bpd, Kuwait by 135,000 bpd, Kazakhstan by 82,000 bpd, Algeria by 51,000 bpd and Oman by 42,000 bpd. The newly agreed cuts are expected to start taking place from January 1, 2024.
- SAUDI ARABIA’S FISCAL BREAKEVEN OIL PRICE RANGES BETWEEN $80 AND $88 A BARREL. According to SPGLOBAL, Saudi Arabia needs a fiscal breakeven oil price ranging between $80 and $88 a barrel, based on estimates from the International Monetary Fund, Institute of International Finance and Goldman Sachs. In addition to that, the same source, earlier this year said that Russia would need a $114 a barrel fiscal breakeven oil price. FISCAL BREAKEVEN PRICE DEFINITION: According to the CFR.ORG, an oil-exporting country’s “fiscal breakeven” oil price is the minimum price per barrel that the country needs in order to meet its expected spending needs while balancing its budget. Oil prices below this level could result in budget deficits unless government policies change.
- OPEC+ PRODUCTION CUTS TO PRODUCE AN OIL MARKET DEFICIT OF 2 MILLION BARRELS A DAY IN Q4 OF 2023. According to some banks, including ING, ANZ and Goldman Sachs, the oil markets are still expected to be in deficit in Q4 2023, and with extended OPEC+ cuts into 2024, these deficits may be prolonged into the period ahead.
CURRENT SITUATION AND OIL MARKET DEFICIT DEVELOPMENT:
- OPEC+ IS CUTTING OIL PRODUCTION BY AROUND 6 MILLION BARRELS A DAY IN TOTAL. OPEC+ had in place cuts of 3.66 million bpd, amounting to 3.6% of global demand, including 2 million bpd agreed last year and voluntary cuts of 1.66 million bpd agreed in April this year. Those cuts were joined by Saudi and Russia voluntary cuts of around 1.3 million barrels a day to make in total 4.9 million barrels a day of oil production cuts. In December they agreed another 900,000 barrels a day of production cuts.
- CHINA’S ECONOMY TO RECOVER BETTER IN Q3 AND Q4 WITH SURGING OIL DEMAND. Due to additional stimulus packages in China, economists expect the Chinese economy to recover at quicker pace in the second half of the year that started in July.
MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS TO KEEP MARKETS NERVOUS
- RED SEA ACTIVITY HAS RISEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS AS YEMEN’S HOUTI REBELS CONTINUED TO ATTACK ISRAL- LINKED SHIPS. Latest, at least two commercial vessels came under attack in international waters in the southern Red Sea on December 3. Yemen's Houthi group claimed drone and missile attacks on two Israeli vessels in the area. According to Reuters, Yemen's Houthi movement said its navy had attacked two Israeli ships, Unity Explorer and Number 9, with an armed drone and a naval missile
TECHNICAL REVIEW:
- STATISTICS: CRUDE OIL HAS TESTED THE RANGE OF $62- $70 EIGHT TIMES SINCE FEBRUARY 2021. After testing the region, Crude oil would come back up above the mark of $70, to target the $80- $90 range.
Graph (Weekly): Crude Oil (February 2021- December 2023)
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.
Crude Oil, December 4, 2023
Current Price: 73.5
|
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
90 |
|
|
85 |
|
|
80 |
|
|
67 |
|
|
66 |
|
|
65 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Crude Oil |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
16,500.00 |
11,500.00 |
6,500.00 |
-6,500.00 |
-7,500.00 |
-8,500.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
15,167.67 |
10,571.41 |
5,975.14 |
-5,975.14 |
-6,894.40 |
-7,813.65 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
13,017.14 |
9,072.55 |
5,127.96 |
-5,127.96 |
-5,916.88 |
-6,705.80 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
22,333.91 |
15,566.06 |
8,798.21 |
-8,798.21 |
-10,151.78 |
-11,505.35 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:30 (GMT) 04/12/2023
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- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
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