Crude Oil weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPILITICS: MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS KEEP MARKETS NERVOUS
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US, UK STRIKE HOUTHIS IN YEMEN: The US- UK coalition continued to conduct isolated strikes on targets in Yemen, facing responses by the Houthis (Iran- backed group) themselves, which has recently increased tensions in the oil- richest region in the world. The US has earlier this week listed the Houthis as a terrorist group.
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RED SEA, SUEZ CANAL AVOIDED BY SHIPPING AND OIL TANKER COMPANIES. Middle East tensions, compounded by the ongoing Israeli ground offensive of Gaza Strip, keep many oil investors nervous. Meanwhile, the Yemen’s Houthis continue to pose a threat to the many ships transiting through the Red Sea. Some analyses show that around 9 million barrels a day of oil transits through the Red Sea. This is almost 10% of total global oil demand. Therefore, many investors fear the worst: oil delivery delays and higher oil prices thereafter. The Houthis have already claimed responsibility for many attacks on ships bound for Israel and have shown no signs of backing down.
EVENTS:
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EVENT (FEBRUARY 1): OPEC+ JOINT MINISTERIAL MONITORING COMMITTEE (JMMC) MEETING. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which includes group leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia, will convene in February, to discuss current oil market conditions and consider policy measures to help balance the oil markets.
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OPEC OIL MONTHLY REPORT (DECEMBER): A 1.8 MILLION BARRELS A DAY OF DEFICIT EXPECTED IN 2024. December oil price drop was mainly driven by selling pressure from speculators.
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OPEC+ STARTS CUTTING ITS OIL PRODUCTION BY AROUND 1,000,000 BARRELS A DAY FROM JANUARY 1, 2024. OPEC+, consisting of OPEC and some non-OPEC oil producers, is responsible for almost 50% of the total global oil supply. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is led by Saudi Arabia, while the non-OPEC part is led by Russia. The two players, accompanied by the other OPEC+ producers, agreed in early December 2023 on additional oil production cuts that could start on January 1, 2024. Adding the previously agreed cuts, OPEC+ is expected now to deliver a total supply reduction of around 6 million barrels a day compared to November 2022. Favoring higher oil prices, both Saudi Arabia and Russia have said that if necessary the recently agreed cuts could be extended and/or expanded after Q1 of 2024.
ANALYST EXPECTATIONS 2024
SOURCE: Bloomberg
TECHNICAL REVIEW:
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STATISTICS: CRUDE OIL HAS TESTED THE RANGE OF $62- $70 TEN TIMES SINCE FEBRUARY 2021. After testing the region, Crude oil would come back up above the mark of $70, to target the $80- $100 range.
Graph (Weekly): Crude Oil (February 2021- January 2024)
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.
Crude Oil, January 18, 2023
Current Price: 73
|
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
100 |
|
|
90 |
|
|
80 |
|
|
67 |
|
|
66 |
|
|
65 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Crude Oil |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
27,000 |
17,000 |
7,000 |
-6,000 |
-7,000 |
-8,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
24,801 |
15,615 |
6,430 |
-5,511 |
-6,430 |
-7,348 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
21,288 |
13,404 |
5,519 |
-4,731 |
-5,519 |
-6,308 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
36,418 |
22,930 |
9,442 |
-8,093 |
-9,442 |
-10,791 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:30 (GMT) 18/01/2024
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
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You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
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Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more detail