Crude Oil

Crude Oil weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:

GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS:

• ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU TO SPEAK BEFORE U.S. CONGRESS ON JULY 24 (Wednesday) AT 19:00 GMT+1, AND MEET PRESIDENT BIDEN ON JULY 25 (Thursday): According to Reuters, this would be his fourth address to the US Congress — the most ever by any other leader. Former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill addressed Congress three times. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will likely meet with US President Joe Biden on Thursday (July 25).
• ISRAEL: FEARS OVER AN ALL-OUT WAR WITH HEZBOLLAH RISE HIGH, DECISION TO BE MADE SOON. According to Reuters, Israel could soon decide an all-out war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah leader Nasrallah said that militant leaders from Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and other countries had previously offered to send tens of thousands of fighters to help Hezbollah, but he said the group already had more than 100,000 fighters. The tensions in the Middle East could cause oil supply disruptions, which in turn could positively support the oil prices.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:

• OPEC+ MEETING WHICH WAS ON JUNE 2: MOST OF THE OIL PRODUCTION CUTS TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE END OF 2025. According to Reuters, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, together known as OPEC+, are currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd), which is about 5.7% of global demand. This includes 3.66 million bpd of cuts that were due to expire at the end of 2024, and voluntary cuts by eight members of 2.2 million bpd to expire by the end of June 2024. The group, however, agreed to extend the cuts of 3.66 million bpd by a year until the end of 2025. It will also prolong the cuts of 2.2 million bpd by three months until September 2024, before phasing it out over a year from October 2024 to September 2025.

TRAVEL SEASON EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE OIL DEMAND:

• GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECTS A DEFICIT OF 1.3 MILLION BARRELS A DAY IN Q3 OF 2024. Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report that solid summer transport demand will push the oil market into a third-quarter deficit of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd).
• US DRIVING SEASON (MAY 27 - SEPTEMBER 2): During the period, the US citizens travel around, consuming a lot of fuel and therefore reducing federal inventories. This period could be bullish for the oil prices. According to CNN Business, 212 million people are expected to travel in the US this summer or 82% of the U.S. population, which would be the highest in 20 years.

EVENTS:

• WEDNESDAY (JULY 24) AT 15:30 GMT+1: US WEEKLY OIL INVENTORIES DATA (US GOVERNMENT). Analysts expect to see a decrease in the US oil inventories for the past week due to the ongoing travel season in the US. If the inventories fall, the supply gets lower, which in turn could support positively the oil prices.
• EVENT (THURSDAY, AUGUST 1): JOINT MINISTERIAL MONITOR=ING COMMITTEE (JMMC) MEETING. According to Reuters, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, or OPEC+ as the group is known, will hold an online joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting (JMMC) on Aug. 1 to review the market. OPEC+ is currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5.7% of global demand, in a series of steps agreed since late 2022.

TECHNICAL REVIEW:

• THE CRUDE OIL PRICE HAS TESTED ITS LOWEST LEVEL IN 6 WEEKS ($76.385). After breaking below the mark of $80, Crude Oil extended declines to $76.385 earlier this week, hitting its lowest rate in six weeks. However, the price could decline.

Crude Oil, July 24, 2024
Current Price: 77.10

Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units

2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:50 (GMT+1) 24/07/2024

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
• Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.