EUR/USD Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: US PRESIDENT- ELECT DONALD TRUMP TOOK OFFICE ON JANUARY 20, 2025
- POLICY CHANGES: President Trump signaled a possible 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, potentially announced on February 1. He also said that in order to reduce deficit with Europe he will make them buy more oil and gas or face more tariffs. These actions bolster confidence in the US dollar and may pressure the Euro.
- EVENT (JANAURY 23): US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP TO SPEAK ONLINE AT THE DAVOS WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM. The markets are likely to respond to any hints of Trump’s future policies. If his speech is filled with uncertainties and hostilities, the US dollar will be supported.
EVENTS:
- WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 29, AT 19:00 GMT: US FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE DECISION. The US Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at 4.5% in January. If true, this would be the first pause after the bank started tits rate cut cycle in September 2024. The pause could provide short- term support to the US dollar.
- THURSDAY, JANUARY 30, AT 13:15 GMT: EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (ECB) INTEREST RATE CUT DECISION. The ECB cut its benchmark interest rate in December from 3.40% to the current 3.15%, and investors expect the ECB could continue with their rate-cutting cycle in January 2025. The benchmark interest rate in the Eurozone is now expected to be slashed below 3.15%. If the ECB does decide to continue cutting rates, this could push the EURO lower.
DEVELOPING POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES: EUROZONE
- EVENT (SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 23, 2025): GERMANY ELECTIONS. Chancellor Olaf Scholz's three-party coalition fell apart late last year after the pro-market Free Democrats quit in a row over governmental debt, leaving his Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens without a parliamentary majority just as Germany faces a deepening economic crisis. Uncertainties rise ahead of the February elections as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) continued to gain momentum and support ahead of the elections. Fears rise as markets believe that if the AfD wins, then serious economic and immigration changes could be implemented within the European Union (EU), which could in turn undermine the unity within the EU. All of these uncertainties could be expected to keep the EURO under negative pressure.
ANALYST OPINION:
- HSBC: The bank forecasts that the EUR/USD will fall below parity to 0.99 by the end of 2025.
- BNP Paribas: The bank forecasts that the EUR/USD will fall to parity of 1.0000 in 2025
- UBS: The bank forecasts that the EUR/USD will fall to parity of 1.0000 by March 1, 2025.
EURUSD, JANUARY 21, 2025
Current Price: 1.03800
|
EUR/USD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1.0560 |
|
|
1.0530 |
|
|
1.0490 |
|
|
1.0260 |
|
|
1.0100 |
|
|
1.0000 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
EUR/USD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
-1,800.00 |
-1,500.00 |
-1,100.00 |
1,200.00 |
2,800.00 |
3,800.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
-1,733.97 |
-1,444.98 |
-1,059.65 |
1,155.98 |
2,697.29 |
3,660.60 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
-1,465.57 |
-1,221.31 |
-895.63 |
977.05 |
2,279.77 |
3,093.98 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
-2,336.71 |
-1,947.25 |
-1,427.99 |
1,557.80 |
3,634.88 |
4,933.05 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100.000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 14:15 (GMT) 21/01/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.