EUR/USD Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: TRADE WAR
- POLICY CHANGES: President Trump has confirmed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on all goods from China, reinforcing trade protectionism.
- EUROPE POLICY CHANGES: Donald Trump has warned Europe of possible tariffs to address the trade deficit, but has not yet specified the extent, timing, or specific measures he intends to implement. These actions strengthen confidence in the U.S. dollar and could put additional pressure on the Euro.
EVENTS:
- WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 5 AT 13:15 GMT: U.S. ADP NONFARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (JANUARY): The market consensus expects an increase of 149K jobs, up from the previous 122K. This data serves as an early gauge of labor market conditions before the official Nonfarm Payrolls release. A stronger-than-expected figure could boost the U.S. dollar, signaling a more resilient job market.
- FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 7 AT 13:30 GMT: US NONFARM PAYROLLS AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (JANUARY): According to the market consensus, the US unemployment rate is expected to come in unchanged at 4.1%. The report will be closely watched as Fed interest rate decisions in 2025 will depend on the US employment data.
DEVELOPING POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES: EUROZONE
- EVENT (SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 23, 2025): GERMANY ELECTIONS. Chancellor Olaf Scholz's three-party coalition fell apart late last year after the pro-market Free Democrats quit in a row over governmental debt, leaving his Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens without a parliamentary majority just as Germany faces a deepening economic crisis. Uncertainties rise ahead of the February elections as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) continued to gain momentum and support ahead of the elections. Fears rise as markets believe that if the AfD wins, then serious economic and immigration changes could be implemented within the European Union (EU), which could in turn undermine the unity within the EU. All of these uncertainties could be expected to keep the EURO under negative pressure.
ANALYST OPINION:
- HSBC: The bank forecasts that the EUR/USD will fall below parity to 0.99 by the end of 2025.
- BNP Paribas: The bank forecasts that the EUR/USD will fall to parity of 1.0000 in 2025.
- UBS: The bank forecasts that the EUR/USD will fall to parity of 1.0000 by March 1, 2025.
EURUSD, FEBRUARY 3, 2025
Current Price: 1.0240
|
EUR/USD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1.0420 |
|
|
1.0400 |
|
|
1.0360 |
|
|
1.0100 |
|
|
1.0000 |
|
|
0.9900 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
EUR/USD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
-1,800.00 |
-1,600.00 |
-1,200.00 |
1,400.00 |
2,400.00 |
3,400.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
-1,757.95 |
-1,562.62 |
-1,171.97 |
1,367.30 |
2,343.94 |
3,320.58 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
-1,462.46 |
-1,299.96 |
-974.97 |
1,137.47 |
1,949.94 |
2,762.42 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
-2,336.71 |
-2,077.07 |
-1,557.80 |
1,817.44 |
3,115.61 |
4,413.78 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100.000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:35 (GMT) 03/02/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.