EUR/USD

EUR/USD Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:

GEOPOLITICS: TRADE WAR

• BREAKING (FEBRUARY 10): US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP TO ANNOUNCE RECIPROCAL TARIFF PLAN ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY (FEBRUARY 11 OR FEBRUARY 12). Trump said he would hold a news conference on Tuesday or Wednesday to provide detailed information on the reciprocal tariff plan, adding he was planning reciprocal tariffs to ensure that the USA is treated evenly with other countries. The new U.S. president has long complained about the EU's 10% tariffs on auto imports being much higher than the U.S. car rate of 2.5%. He frequently states that Europe won't take the US cars but ships millions west across the Atlantic every year. (Source: Reuters)
• EARLIER: US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP WARNED OF POSSIBLE TARIFFS ON EU PRODUCTS. Donald Trump has warned Europe of possible tariffs to address the trade deficit but has not yet specified the extent, timing, or specific measures he intends to implement. These actions strengthen confidence in the U.S. dollar and could put additional pressure on the Euro.

EVENTS:

• TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 11, AT 15:00 GMT AND WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 12 AT 15:00 GMT: FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL TESTIMONY BEFORE CONGRESS. Fed Chair Powell is expected to deliver his regularly scheduled testimony to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. His remarks come after the Fed held interest rates steady in January (4.5%) after cutting rates in the prior three meetings (from 5.5% to 4.5%) as the central bank pointed to a strong job market and concerns over rising inflation.
• WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 12, AT 13:30 GMT: U.S INFLATION (CPI) (JANUARY): The U.S. is scheduled to report its CPI figure for the month of January. The CPI inflation data from last month of December came out at 2.9%, up from the 2.7% in November, continuing the upward trend observed in previous months (2.6% in October and 2.4% in September). If this trajectory persists, the dollar could experience upward pressure as markets anticipate potential monetary policy adjustments.

DEVELOPING POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES: GERMANY AND EUROZONE

• EVENT (SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 23, 2025): GERMANY ELECTIONS. Chancellor Olaf Scholz's three-party coalition fell apart late last year after the pro-market Free Democrats quit in a row over governmental debt, leaving his Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens without a parliamentary majority just as Germany faces a deepening economic crisis. Uncertainties rise ahead of the February elections as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) continued to gain momentum and support ahead of the elections. Fears rise as markets believe that if the AfD wins, then serious economic and immigration changes could be implemented within the European Union (EU), which could in turn undermine the unity within the EU. All of these uncertainties could be expected to keep the EURO under negative pressure.

ANALYST OPINION:

• HSBC: The bank forecasts that the EUR/USD will fall below parity to 0.99 by the end of 2025.
• BNP Paribas: The bank forecasts that the EUR/USD will fall to parity of 1.0000 in 2025.
• UBS: The bank forecasts that the EUR/USD will fall to parity of 1.0000 by March 1, 2025.

EURUSD, FEBRUARY 10, 2025
Current Price: 1.0330

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100.000 units

2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 11:05 (GMT) 10/02/2025

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.

• Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.