EUR/USD Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
DEVELOPING POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES: GERMANY AND EUROZONE
- EVENT (SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 23, 2025): GERMANY ELECTIONS. Germany, the largest economy in the Eurozone, is at a critical juncture as political instability rises. The collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition last year has increased uncertainty, with the upcoming elections set to redefine Germany’s economic and geopolitical direction. Uncertainties have recently risen as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has gained some momentum recently and if it does well on Sunday, it could raise fears further, which could negatively impact the Euro currency.
GEOPOLITICS: TRADE WAR
- BREAKING (FEBRUARY 13): US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP ANNOUNCED RECIPROCAL TARIFF PLAN. U.S. President Donald Trump announced a reciprocal tariff plan, instructing his team to calculate duties matching those imposed by other countries and to address non-tariff barriers like vehicle safety rules and value-added taxes that increase costs for U.S. goods. While no immediate tariffs were implemented, the directive initiates an investigation that could take months, potentially leading to new trade restrictions against China, Japan, South Korea, and the European Union. With a possible start date of April 1, Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick stated that each country would be evaluated individually. The uncertainty surrounding these measures and potential retaliatory actions could increase volatility in the euro-dollar exchange rate, as investors reassess risk in global trade and monetary policy expectations shift accordingly.
EVENTS:
- MONDAY, FEBRUARY 24, AT 10:00 GMT: EUROZONE INFLATION (CPI) (JANUARY): The Eurozone is scheduled to report the second reading of its CPI figure for the month of January. The last CPI inflation data came out at 2.5%. If it comes below the recent 2.5%, the data could anticipate a decline in the value of the Euro, putting positive pressure on the EUR/USD.
- FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 28 at 13:30 GMT: PCE (PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE) PRICE INDEX (JANUARY). This is an indicator of the average increases in prices for all domestic personal consumption and it is Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. The price index for the previous month of December was 2.8%, and it has been increasing since June, 2024 (2.6%).
ANALYST OPINION:
- HSBC: The bank forecasts that the EUR/USD will fall below parity to 0.99 by the end of 2025.
- BNP Paribas: The bank forecasts that the EUR/USD will fall to parity of 1.0000 in 2025.
- UBS: The bank forecasts that the EUR/USD will fall to parity of 1.0000 by March 1, 2025.
EURUSD, FEBRUARY 20, 2025
Current Price: 1.0430
|
EUR/USD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1.0600 |
|
|
1.0580 |
|
|
1.0550 |
|
|
1.0300 |
|
|
1.0200 |
|
|
1.0100 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
EUR/USD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
-1,700.00 |
-1,500.00 |
-1,200.00 |
1,300.00 |
2,300.00 |
3,300.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
-1,629.77 |
-1,438.03 |
-1,150.42 |
1,246.29 |
2,204.98 |
3,163.66 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
-1,348.59 |
-1,189.93 |
-951.95 |
1,031.28 |
1,824.56 |
2,617.85 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
-2,412.73 |
-2,128.88 |
-1,703.10 |
1,845.02 |
3,264.27 |
4,683.52 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100.000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:35 (GMT) 20/02/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.