EUR/USD Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: U.S. INSTITUTIONAL RISK
- BREAKING (APRIL 2): US PRESIDENT TRUMP AND FEDERAL RESERVE INDEPENDENCE. U.S. President Donald Trump has increased pressure on the Federal Reserve, criticizing its current policy stance and specifically targeting Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Reports suggest that the White House is actively exploring legal options to remove Powell from his position. Trump's main goal is to push interest rates lower, not only to stimulate the economy but also to make it cheaper for the U.S. government to refinance its growing debt burden. This direct interference with the central bank’s decision-making raises serious concerns about the Fed’s independence.
- POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES: The perception that the Fed is no longer acting independently can undermine confidence in U.S. monetary policy. When investors believe that interest rate decisions are driven by political agendas rather than economic fundamentals, it tends to weaken the U.S. dollar. Historical precedents show that political pressure on central banks often leads to currency depreciation.
EU (European Union) – US TRADE:
- NEWS: US PRESIDENT TRUMP SUSPENDED THEIR RECIPROCAL TARIFFS ON THE REST OF THE WORLD BY 90 DAYS. For the next 90 days, the US will charge countries that are part of the reciprocal tariff plan only 10%, compared to the range of up to 84% previously planned, as it gives time and space for other countries to begin and reach new trade deals with the USA. More than 70 countries have already contacted the US administration to begin talks soon. This has significantly reduced global recession fears.
- EU - US TRADE NEGOTIATIONS TO BEGIN: The EU-US trade talks are expected to begin soon, as countries have up to 90 days to renegotiate the trade’s new terms with the USA.
EVENTS (UNITED STATES):
- WEDNESDAY, APRIL 30, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US GDP (Q1). This is the first report for the first quarter of 2025. The last GDP data for Q4 2024 came out at 2.4%, down from the 3.1% in Q3 2024. However, if the data shows further declines, the US Dollar could weaken, potentially leading to a rise in the EUR/USD exchange rate.
- FRIDAY, MAY 2, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (APRIL): The U.S. labor market report will be in focus. In March, NFPs came in at 228K, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from the previous 4.1%. If the unemployment rate keeps the upward trend (4% in January, 4.1% in February, and 4.2% in March), it could lead to a decrease in the value of the US dollar.
EVENTS (EUROZONE):
- FRIDAY, MAY 2, AT 10:00 GMT: EUROZONE INFLATION (CPI) (APRIL): The Eurozone is scheduled to report the first reading of its CPI figure for the month of April. The last CPI inflation data came out at 2.2%.
EURUSD, APRIL 22, 2025
Current Price: 1.1485
|
EUR/USD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1.2000 |
|
|
1.1850 |
|
|
1.1680 |
|
|
1.1300 |
|
|
1.1250 |
|
|
1.1200 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
EUR/USD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
5,150 |
3,650 |
1,950 |
-1,850 |
-2,350 |
-2,850 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
4,478 |
3,174 |
1,696 |
-1,609 |
-2,044 |
-2,478 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
3,849 |
2,728 |
1,457 |
-1,383 |
-1,756 |
-2,130 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
7,120 |
5,046 |
2,696 |
-2,558 |
-3,249 |
-3,940 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100.000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:30 (GMT) 22/04/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.