GOLD weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS TO SUPPORT DEMAND FOR SAFE- HAVEN INSTRUMENTS
- BREAKING (OCTOBER 1): IRAN LAUNCHED A MISSILE ATTACK AGAINST ISRAEL TO INCREASE DEMAND FOR THE SAFE- HAVEN GOLD. According to Reuters, Iran launched around 180 missiles towards Israel. That would make it a slightly larger attack than April's barrage, which saw about 110 ballistic missiles and 30 cruise missiles fired towards Israel.
- GOLD’S ROLE IN THE WORLD OF INVESTMENTS: Investors tend to purchase Gold in times of distress due to Gold’s ability to store value through time, and as tensions have again risen in the Middle East, market participants shifted to Gold to protect their investments. To this end, Gold prices could be expected to rise in value in the period ahead. However, they could also decline.
CENTRAL BANKS: INTEREST RATE CUT DECISION
- BREAKING (SEPTEMBER 18): FEDERAL RESERVE ANNOUNCED ITS FIRST INTEREST RATE CUT SINCE 2020. US Federal Reserve decided to cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.50% points on September 18, to 5.00% from the previous 5.50%. The bank expects to cut rates two more times in 2024 to slash its benchmark rate to 4.5% by the end of 2024. The bank expects rates to fall to 3.5% in 2025 and further down to 2.9% in 2026. NEXT FED INTEREST RATE DECISION: November 7, 2024. As of September 23, the market sees equal chances for 50 basis points or 25 basis points interest rate cut. This could bring current rates of 5.00% down to either 4.75% or 4.50%.
STATISTICS: GOLD HAS RISEN ON AVERAGE WITHIN THE FIRST 3, 6 AND 12 MONTHS AFTER A RATE CUT CYCLE BEGAN IN THE USA
- LAST THREE RATE CUT CYCLES (AVERAGE): The table below shows that Gold would rise by around 4.60% on average within the first three months after a rate cut cycle began in the USA. Gold rose around 16% on average within the first 6 months and around 20% within the first 12 months.
- LAST FOUR RATE CUT CYCLES (AVERAGE): The table below shows that Gold would rise by around 3.15% on average within the first three months after a rate cut cycle began. Gold rose around 14.60% on average within the first 6 months and around 15% within the first 12 months.
Data Source: Bloomberg Terminal
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
EVENTS:
- US NONFARM PAYROLLS AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (SEPTEMBER) (FRIDAY, OCTOBER 4 AT 13:30 GMT+1). US Unemployment rate is expected to come in at 4.2% as same as in August, but the Fed said that it couls rise to 4.4% this year and 2025. This should further support market expectations that Fed could cut interest rates by another 50 basis points in November to 4.50%.
- US INFLATION (CPI) (SEPTEMBER) (THURSDAY, OCTOBER 10 AT 13:30 GMT+1). US Inflation has fallen to 2.5%, which is the lowest rate since 2021. US Federal Reserve expects consumer prices in the USA to continue falling in 2024, 2025 and 2026.
ANALYST OPINION:
- Citigroup targets $3,000; Bank of America targets $3,000; Goldmans Sachs targets $2,700; UBS targets $2,900.
GOLD, October 2, 2024
Current Price: 2645
|
GOLD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
3000 |
|
|
2850 |
|
|
2700 |
|
|
2600 |
|
|
2580 |
|
|
2560 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
35,500 |
20,500 |
5,500 |
-4,500 |
-6,500 |
-8,500 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
32,068 |
18,518 |
4,968 |
-4,065 |
-5,872 |
-7,678 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
26,708 |
15,423 |
4,138 |
-3,385 |
-4,890 |
-6,395 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
47,882 |
27,650 |
7,418 |
-6,070 |
-8,767 |
-11,465 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:00 (GMT+1) 02/10/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.