GOLD weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
US FEDERAL RESERVE HAS BEGUN YET ANOTHER INTEREST RATE CUT CYCLE:
- NEXT FED INTEREST RATE DECISION: Wednesday, December 18, 2024 at 19:00 GMT. As of December 17, the market sees high chances for a 25 basis points interest rates cut. This could bring current rates of 4.75% down to 4.50%. The bank has so far cut rates twice, slashing rates from an initial 5.5% in September down to the current 4.75%.
- STATISTICS: GOLD TENDS TO RISE BY 20.53% ON AVERAGE WITHIN THE FIRST 12 MONTHS AFTER A RATE CUT CYCLE IN THE U.S.A. BEGINS.
Data Source: MetaTrader 4 Platform
SEASONAL TRADE: DECEMBER - JANUARY (2014- 2024)
- STATISTICS: GOLD ROSE 5.62% ON AVERAGE BETWEEN DECEMBER AND JANUARY (2014- 2024)
Data Source: MetaTrader 4 Platform
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
CHINA RESUMED BUYING GOLD AFTER A SIX-MONTH PAUSE:
- REPORT: Data released by the People's Bank of China revealed that it has resumed buying gold. The People’s Bank of China said it bought 160,000 fine troy ounces in November (around 5 tons), ending a six-month pause in purchases. The PBOC had been a major buyer of bullion since late 2022 as it looked to be headed on a multi-year effort to diversify out of US dollars. That changed this year as officials seemingly became price sensitive as buying stopped in May. China’s gold holdings rose to 72.96 million troy ounces at the end of November, up from 72.80 million a month earlier. China was the largest official sector buyer of gold in 2023, with net purchases of 7.23 million ounces, according to the World Gold Council, the most for a single year since at least 1977. Furthermore, it is expected that other Central Banks will remain active buyers of gold in the following year, with 850 tons of expected gold purchases in the year 2025.
- STATISTICS: GOLD ROSE AROUND 40% FROM JANUARY 2023 TO APRIL 2024. China stopped buying gold in May 2024, but before that, China was adding gold for 18 consecutive months (From January 2023 to April 2024). Within this time period, Gold rose from $1,632.07 in January 2023 to $2,289.60 in April 2024. It marked an increase of around 40% (Source I: YahooFinance; Source II: MetaTrader 4 Platform).
ANALYST OPINION:
- Citigroup targets $3,000; Bank of America targets $3,000; UBS targets $2,900. Goldman Sachs targets $3,000.
GOLD, December 17, 2024
Current Price: 2638
|
GOLD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
3000 |
|
|
2900 |
|
|
2700 |
|
|
2600 |
|
|
2575 |
|
|
2550 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
36,200 |
26,200 |
6,200 |
-3,800 |
-6,300 |
-8,800 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
34,506 |
24,974 |
5,910 |
-3,622 |
-6,005 |
-8,388 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
28,509 |
20,633 |
4,883 |
-2,993 |
-4,961 |
-6,930 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
51,687 |
37,409 |
8,853 |
-5,426 |
-8,995 |
-12,565 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 11:00 (GMT) 17/12/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.