Gold

GOLD weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:

GEOPOLITICS: US PRESIDENT- ELECT DONALD TRUMP TAKES OFFICE ON JANUARY 20, 2025

• US PRESIDENT-ELECT DONALD TRUMP IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE PRESSURE ON IRAN AFTER HE TAKES OFFICE ON JANUARY 20, 2025. Earlier reports would also suggest that Trump could allow the US army to conduct airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities as fears and concerns have grown that Iran is approaching capacity to produce a nuclear weapon. This could see a surge in Middle East tensions, which could, on the other hand, increase demand for the safe-haven Gold.
• TRADE WAR: President Trump has said on several occasions that he will increase tariffs on countries that have trade surpluses with the US, including Canada, Mexico, China, and the European Union. This will increase global economic uncertainties, which in turn could increase demand for the safe-haven Gold.
• STATISTICS: GOLD ROSE 10.85% DURING TRUMP’S FIRST YEAR OF PRESIDENCY (JANUARY 20, 2017 – JANUARY 20, 2018). In addition, Gold rose 55.38% during the entire first presidential term of Donald Trump (January 20, 2017 – January 20, 2021)

Data Source: MetaTrader 4 Platform

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

GEOPOLITICS

• DAVOS WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM TO TAKE PLACE FROM JANUARY 20^th TO 24^th. The forum begins on Monday, January 20, and runs until Friday, January 24. The Davos event will attract more than 3,000 business and political leaders. They will include 900 company chairs and chief executives along with 60 heads of state. It takes place each year in January in Davos, Switzerland.
• US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP IS EXPECTED TO GIVE A SPEECH IN DAVOS ON JANUARY 23^rd. The markets are likely to respond to any hints of Trump’s future policies. If his speech is filled with uncertainties and hostilities, gold price will be supported.

CENTRAL BANKS:

• REPORT: CHINA CONTINUED BUYING GOLD IN DECEMBER 2024. China added gold for a second straight month as it bought 10 tons (or 0.33 million ounces) of gold in December, which took its gold reserves from 72.96 million ounces in November to 73.29 million ounces. This after it bought 0.16 million ounces (5 tons) of gold in November.

EVENTS:

• THURSDAY, JANUARY 16, AT 13:30 GMT: U.S. RETAIL SALES (DECEMBER): Retail sales point to the current condition of the economy as well as the overall market sentiment. If the overall sentiment and consumption are falling or stagnating, it can signal stronger interest rate cuts, which is supportive for gold.
• THURSDAY, JANUARY 16, AT 13:30 GMT: U.S. PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX (DECEMBER): A level below zero indicates shrinking economic activity, which increases the chance of a FED interest rate cut. This index rates the relative level of general business conditions in Philadelphia.
• FRIDAY, JANUARY 24, AT 14:45 GMT: U.S. MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX (PMI): If the index comes below 50, it signals a contraction in the manufacturing sector, which increases the odds of an interest rate cut from the FED. This index measures the level of activity of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector.
• WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 29, AT 19:00 GMT: FED INTEREST RATE DECISION: As of January 16, the FED is projecting high chances rates will remain unchanged at the current 4.50%. Currently the FED is expecting two rate cuts in 2025.

ANALYSTS’ OPINION:

GOLD, January 16, 2025
Current Price: 2700

Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units

2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:20 (GMT) 01/16/2025

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
• Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.