Gold

GOLD weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:

GEOPOLITICS: TRADE WAR

• TRADE WAR: Trade wars increase global insecurity, increasing demand for safe-haven Gold. US President Trump has declared that he will implement tariffs on various countries that, according to him, have treated the US unfairly in trade.
  • US – Canada: Tariffs of 25% are set to implemented on Canadian imports and 10% on Canadian energy imports on March 4^th. Canada has announced retaliatory tariffs on American imports
  • US – Mexico: Tariffs of 25% are also set to be implemented on March 4^th.
  • US – China: Tariffs of 10% have been implemented on Chinese imports. China has retaliated with tariffs of their own (10 – 15% on select US goods).
  • US – EU: Tariffs of 25% are set to be implemented on the EU countries. The date has not been announced but Donald Trump has said it will be “soon”.
  • Additional tariffs: 25% on all pharmaceutical and chip (semiconductor) and 25% on all steel and aluminum imports.

US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP AND GOLD DURING TRUMP’S FIRST PRESIDENCY

• PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS INAUGURATED AS 47^TH PRESIDENT OF THE USA ON JANUARY 20, 2025. As soon as he took office, President Trump signed more than 200 executive orders, in line with his promises. He also signed orders to slap tariffs on products imported into the USA, initiating a new episode of trade war with some countries.
• DONALD TRUMP AND HIS FIRST PRESIDENCY (JANUARY 20, 2017 – JANUARY 20, 2021): Donald Trump used to be as unpredictable as during his current term, initiating trade wars with China, the EU, the UK, Canada, Mexico, etc. Meanwhile, he pulled the USA out of the nuclear deal with Iran as well. All of that raises a lot of worries for many investors, pushing demand for the safe haven Gold higher.
• STATISTICS: GOLD ROSE 10.85% DURING TRUMP’S FIRST YEAR OF PRESIDENCY (JANUARY 20, 2017 – JANUARY 20, 2018). In addition, Gold rose 55.38% during the entire first presidential term of Donald Trump (January 20, 2017 – January 20, 2021).

Data Source: MetaTrader 4 Platform

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

EVENTS:

• FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 28, AT 13:30 GMT: US PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (PCE) PRICE INDEX (JANUARY): A fall in this index could point to the FED cutting interest rates sooner and more aggressively, which is supportive for gold.
• MONDAY, MARCH 3, AT 15:00 GMT: US ISM MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX (PMI) (FEBRUARY): A number lower-than-expected should be regarded as supportive for gold. A number above 50 indicates an expansion, while a number below 50 indicates a contraction in the sector. Data for January came in at 50.9, up from December’s 49.2.
• FRIDAY, MARCH 7, AT 13:30 GMT: US NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (FEBRUARY): A lower-than-expected reading should be taken as positive for gold. Data for January missed estimates for 169,000 as actual number came in lower, at 143,000. Unemployment rate, however, beat expectations in January (4% vs. 4.1% expected).

ANALYSTS’ OPINION:

• GOLDMAN SACHS RAISED GOLD PRICE TARGET TO $3,100, WITH AN UPPER BOUNDARY AT $3,300.
• UBS RAISED GOLD PRICE TARGET TO $3,200.
• MORGAN STANLEY SET A BULL-CASE GOLD PRICE TARGET AT $3,400.
• CITIGROUP TARGETS $3,000.
• BANK OF AMERICA TARGETS $3,000.

Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC

GOLD, February 27, 2025
Current Price: 2880

Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

GOLD

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units

2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:00 (GMT) 27/02/2025

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
• Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.