GOLD weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS:
- TRADE WAR: Trade wars increase global insecurity, increasing demand for safe-haven instruments such as Gold. US President Trump has declared that he will implement tariffs on various countries that, according to him, have treated the US unfairly in trade.
- US – Canada: Tariffs of 25% have been implemented on Canadian imports and 10% on Canadian energy imports on March 4th. Canada has announced retaliatory tariffs on American imports.
- US – Mexico: Tariffs of 25% have also been implemented on March 4th.
- US – China: Tariffs of 10% have been implemented on Chinese imports. China has retaliated with tariffs of their own (10 – 15% on select US goods). An additional 10% in tariffs on Chinese imports has also been added on top of earlier tariffs by Trump. Further retaliatory measures are considered by Chinese authorities.
- US – EU: Tariffs of 25% are set to be implemented on the EU countries. The date has not been announced, but Donald Trump has said it will be “soon”.
- RUSSIA – UKRAINE CONFLICT: Conflicts in the world stage increase the demand for safe-haven instruments like gold. The prospect of Russia-Ukraine peace agreement has diminished following the breakdown of a minerals agreement between the US and Ukraine, and after President Zelensky left the White House without any kind of agreement being signed.
US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP AND GOLD DURING TRUMP’S FIRST PRESIDENCY
- PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS INAUGURATED AS 47TH PRESIDENT OF THE USA ON JANUARY 20, 2025. As soon as he took office, President Trump signed more than 200 executive orders, in line with his promises. He also signed orders to slap tariffs on products imported into the USA, initiating a new episode of trade war with some countries.
- DONALD TRUMP AND HIS FIRST PRESIDENCY (JANUARY 20, 2017 – JANUARY 20, 2021): Donald Trump was just as unpredictable during his first presidency as he is in his current term, initiating trade wars with China, the EU, the UK, Canada, Mexico, etc. Meanwhile, he pulled the USA out of the nuclear deal with Iran as well. All of that raises a lot of worries for many investors, leading to increased demand for the safe-haven instrument, Gold.
- STATISTICS: GOLD ROSE 10.85% DURING TRUMP’S FIRST YEAR OF PRESIDENCY (JANUARY 20, 2017 – JANUARY 20, 2018). In addition, Gold rose 55.38% during the entire first presidential term of Donald Trump (January 20, 2017 – January 20, 2021).
Data Source: MetaTrader 4 Platform
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
EVENTS:
- WEDNESDAY, MARCH 5, AT 02:00 GMT: US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SPEAKS. Mr. Trump will speak before the US Congress, with expected topics including Ukraine, Russia, Tariffs, Immigration etc.
- WEDNESDAY, MARCH 5, AT 13:15 GMT: ADP NONFARM EMPLOYEMENT CHANGE (FEBRUARY): A lower-than-expected result are expected to be supportive for gold because it could increase the odds of a FED interest rate cut. This report is a measure of monthly change in non-farm, private employment.
- THURSDAY, MARCH 6, AT 13:30 GMT: US WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: A result higher-than-expected will be supportive for gold, because it could increase the odds of the FED cutting interest rates more aggressively. This data measures the number of individuals who filled for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
- FRIDAY, MARCH 7, AT 13:30 GMT: US NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (FEBRUARY): Data for January missed estimates for 169,000 as actual number came in lower, at 143,000. Unemployment rate, however, beat expectations in January (4% vs. 4.1% expected).
ANALYSTS’ OPINION:
- GOLDMAN SACHS RAISED GOLD PRICE TARGE TO $3,100, WITH AN UPPER BOUNDARY AT $3,300.
- UBS RAISED GOLD PRICE TARGET TO $3,200.
- MORGAN STANLEY SET A BULL-CASE GOLD PRICE TARGET AT $3,400.
- CITIGROUP TARGETS $3,000.
- BANK OF AMERICA TARGETS $3,000.
- JPMORGAN TARGETS $3,000.
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC
GOLD, March 04, 2025
Current Price: 2925
|
GOLD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
3100 |
|
|
3050 |
|
|
2975 |
|
|
2880 |
|
|
2865 |
|
|
2850 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
GOLD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
17,500 |
12,500 |
5,000 |
-4,500 |
-6,000 |
-7,500 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
16,582 |
11,844 |
4,738 |
-4,264 |
-5,685 |
-7,107 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
13,732 |
9,809 |
3,923 |
-3,531 |
-4,708 |
-5,885 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
25,243 |
18,031 |
7,212 |
-6,491 |
-8,655 |
-10,818 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:00 (GMT) 04/03/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.