Natural Gas weekly special report based On 1 Lot Calculation:
FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS:
-
TRUMP PRESIDENCY: A POTENTIAL POLICY SHIFT - Donald Trump’s return to the presidency could significantly change the natural gas sector. Among the expected shifts is a possible lifting of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) export restrictions imposed during the Biden administration with potential implications:
-
U.S. producers will be able to meet surging international Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) demand, particularly from Europe.
-
While expanded exports could boost U.S. energy dominance, they could also tighten domestic supplies, leading to upward pressure on natural gas prices.
-
A proenergy Trump administration could also accelerate investments in pipelines and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) export terminals, enhancing long-term market growth.
-
TRUMP EFFECT: Following Donald Trump’s election victory on November 5, 2024, prices have surged, reaching $4.322 by January 2025, marking an increase of around 61%.
-
-
NATURAL GAS PRICE REACTION ON INCREASED EXPORT IN THE PAST: The expansion of LNG export capacity in 2021 and 2022, in the United States drove a significant rise in natural gas prices. By mid-2022, the U.S. became the largest LNG exporter, capturing over 20% of the global market. Prices surged by 41% in 2021 and an additional 20% in 2022, reaching a record $9.66 in June 2022.
Data Source: MetaTrader 4 Platform
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
-
FEARS OVER NATURAL GAS SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS IN EUROPE:
-
US, UK IMPOSED NEW SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA TARGETING SHADOW FLEET USED FOR SHIPPING RUSSIAN LNG AND OIL. Earlier, despite the sanctions on Russian natural gas in Europe, the Russia “shadow fleet” somehow as able to ship natural gas to Europe. Now, with the latest sanctions on Russian “shadow fleet”, this should not be possible, which could limit natural gas flows to Europe.
-
UKRAINE’S TRANSIT AGREEMENT FOR RUSSIAN GAS TO EUROPE EXPIRED. On January 1, 2025, Ukraine's transit agreement for Russian gas, supplying 8% of Europe’s imports, expired. The end of the transit deal has caused serious tensions with Slovakia, which was the main entry point of Russian gas into the EU.
-
EU MUST BUY MORE US OIL AND GAS OTHERWISE IT IS “TARIFFS ALL THE WAY”: U.S. Presidentelect Donald Trump has demanded that EU countries increase purchases of American gas or face trade tariffs.
-
NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES IN THE US:
-
The EIA (US Energy International Energy) reported that natural gas inventories for the week ended January 24 fell -321 billion cubic feet (bcf), a larger draw than expectations of -316 billion cubic feet (bcf) and a much bigger draw than the 5-year average draw for this time of year of -189 billion cubic feet (bcf).
NATURAL GAS STORAGE IN EUROPE:
-
In Europe, gas storage was 55% full as of January 28, below the 5-year seasonal average of 62% full for this time of year.
WEATHER:
-
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE U.S. FROM FEBRUARY 6 - FEBRUARY 12: With the arrival of winter, demand for natural gas is expected to climb sharply as homes and businesses increase heating usage.
NATURAL GAS, February 6, 2025
Current Price: 3.35
|
NATURAL GAS |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
5.00 |
|
|
4.50 |
|
|
4.00 |
|
|
2.80 |
|
|
2.70 |
|
|
2.60 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
NATURAL GAS
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
16,500 |
11,500 |
6,500 |
-5,500 |
-6,500 |
-7,500 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
15,926 |
11,100 |
6,274 |
-5,309 |
-6,274 |
-7,239 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
13,278 |
9,255 |
5,231 |
-4,426 |
-5,231 |
-6,036 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
23,694 |
16,514 |
9,334 |
-7,898 |
-9,334 |
-10,770 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10 000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:00 (GMT) 06/02/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
-
You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
-
Trailing stop technique could protect the profit