Natural Gas

Natural Gas weekly special report based On 1 Lot Calculation:

FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS:

• TRUMP PRESIDENCY: ENERGY POLICY SHIFT- Donald Trump’s return to the presidency could significantly change the natural gas sector. Among the expected shifts is a possible lifting of LNG export restrictions imposed during the Biden administration with potential implications:
  • U.S. producers will be able to meet surging international Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) demand, particularly from Europe.
  • In trade negotiations regarding tariffs, President Trump emphasized the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as one of the central components of his policy. He sought to secure agreements that would boost the export of American energy resources, with LNG playing a pivotal role in discussions with other countries.
  • While expanded exports could boost U.S. energy dominance, they may also tighten domestic supplies, leading to upward pressure on natural gas prices.
  • A proenergy Trump administration may also accelerate investments in pipelines and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) export terminals, enhancing long-term market growth.
• NATURAL GAS PRICE REACTION ON INCREASED EXPORT IN THE PAST: The expansion of LNG export capacity in 2021 and 2022, in the United States drove a significant rise in natural gas prices. By mid-2022, the U.S. became the largest LNG exporter, capturing over 20% of the global market. Prices surged by 41% in 2021 and an additional 20% in 2022.

Data Source: MetaTrader 4 Platform

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

• INDIA HAS AGREED TO INCREASE OIL AND GAS IMPORT FROM THE U.S. as part of efforts to reduce its trade surplus and avoid tariffs. After a meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. aims to become India’s leading oil and gas supplier. India's oil and gas imports from the U.S. could potentially rise from $15 billion to $25 billion annually, according to Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri. As of 2023, India is the world's fourth-largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), following Japan, China, and South Korea.
• FEARS OVER NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES IN EUROPE:
  • UKRAINE’S TRANSIT AGREEMENT FOR RUSSIAN GAS EXPIRED. On January 1, 2025, Ukraine's transit agreement for Russian gas, supplying 8% of Europe’s imports, expired. The end of the transit deal has caused serious tensions with Slovakia, which was the main entry point of Russian gas into the EU.
  • EU MUST BUY MORE US OIL AND GAS OTHERWISE IT IS “TARIFFS ALL THE WAY”: U.S. President Donald Trump has demanded that EU countries increase purchases of American gas or face trade tariffs.

NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES IN THE US:

• The US Government reported that natural gas inventories for the week ended January 24 fell 100 billion cubic feet (bfc), a larger draw than expectations of -90 bcf.
• NEXT WEEKLY NATURAL GAS STORAGE REPORT: Thursday, February 20 at 15:30 GMT. If US natural gas storage continues to fall, US Natural Gas prices could continue to rise due signals of stronger demand.

NATURAL GAS STORAGE IN EUROPE:

• In Europe, gas storage was 44.6% full as of February 15, below the 5-year seasonal average of 62% full for this time of year. The drop in February so far has been the largest for this month in the past four years.

WEATHER:

• COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE U.S. FROM FEBRUARY 28 - MARCH 4: With the arrival of winter, demand for natural gas is expected to climb sharply as homes and businesses increase heating usage.

NATURAL GAS, February 19, 2025
Current Price: 4.00

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot¹

NATURAL GAS

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10 000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:00 (GMT) 19/02/2025

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
• Trailing stop technique could protect the profit