Natural Gas weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
EUROPE EXPECTED TO SOON START BUYING BIG QUANTITIES OF NATURAL GAS
- EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS STORAGE REFILLING SEASON STARTS MARCH- APRIL AND ENDS IN NOVEMBER.
- MANDATE: EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS STORAGE MUST BE FULL AT LEAST 90% BY NOVEMBER
- CURRENT: AT BELOW 34%
- EUROPE BUYS BIG QUANTITIES OF LIQUIFIED NATURAL GAS (LNG) FROM THE USA: US supplies 50% of Europe's total LNG imports.
- 82% OF TOTAL U.S. LNG EXPORTS WENT TO EUROPE IN FEBRUARY 2024: In February, the U.S. exported 8.35 million tons of LNG. Of the total exports, 6.82 million tons (82%) went to Europe.
- EUROPE MUST INCREASE PURCHASE FROM THE USA OR TO FACE TARIFFS ACCORDING TO US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP.
- STATISTICS (2016 - 2024): NATURAL GAS PRICES ROSE 18.72% ON AVERAGE AT THE START OF THE EUROPEAN REFILLING SEASON (MARCH - APRIL).
Data Source: Meta Trader 4 Platform
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
- STATISTICS (2016 - 2024): NATURAL GAS PRICES ROSE 47.80% ON AVERAGE DURING THE EUROPEAN REFILLING SEASON (MARCH – NOVEMBER)
Data Source: Meta Trader 4 Platform
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
US NATURAL GAS
- US STOCKPILES REMAIN ABOUT 7% BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR MARCH, after extreme cold in January and February forced energy firms to pull massive amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January.
- AROUND 40% OF ELECTRICITY IN THE U.S. IS PRODUCED FROM NATURAL GAS: Rising consumption of electricity in the US will be accompanied by rising demand for natural gas.
- U.S.A. IS THE LARGEST EXPORTERS OF LIQUIFIED NATURAL GAS (LNG) IN THE WORLD. In total, the US exported 88.3 million tons of LNG in 2024, up 4.4% from 2023’s 84.5 million tons. (Source: EIA)
MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS:
- MAJOR NATURAL GAS SHIPPING ROUTES AT RISK AMID RISING MIDDLE EAST TENSION. Recent tensions in the Middle East have escalated risks to vital natural gas shipping routes through the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz. A potential U.S. attack on Iran could significantly impact global natural gas prices due to fears that Iran might attempt to close the Hormuz Strait. Around 20% of the world’s LNG trade passes through Hormuz, and heightened tensions or military activity in the area would likely trigger sharp price increases and energy security concerns, especially in Europe and Asia.
NATURAL GAS: PRICE ACTION
- NATURAL GAS PRICES HIT $9.972 IN AUGUST, 2022. Natural gas prices surged during Europe’s energy crisis, sparked by disrupted Russian supplies. In response, Europe increased LNG purchases from the U.S. A price recovery to $9.972 would mark an around 145% rise from the current $4.07, though prices could also decline.
Natural Gas, April 1, 2025
Current Price: 4.07
|
NATURAL GAS |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
6.00 |
|
|
5.50 |
|
|
4.50 |
|
|
3.65 |
|
|
3.45 |
|
|
3.25 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
NATURAL GAS |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
19,300 |
14,300 |
4,300 |
-4,200 |
-6,200 |
-8,200 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
17,857 |
13,231 |
3,979 |
-3,886 |
-5,737 |
-7,587 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
14,941 |
11,070 |
3,329 |
-3,251 |
-4,800 |
-6,348 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
27,764 |
20,571 |
6,186 |
-6,042 |
-8,919 |
-11,796 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 11:45 (GMT+1) 01/04/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop techniques could protect the profit.