Palladium weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
PALLADIUM USE AND MARKET SHARE:
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Palladium is mostly used in catalytic converters by the car industry to reduce harmful gas emissions while tightening regulation is forcing automakers to put more Palladium into each vehicle, which in turn could keep the demand outlook positive. Palladium has also been used in fuel cells to generate power.
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MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): Russia is the largest producer holding 43% of the markets, while South Africa is the second largest with 33.00% of the markets. Canada is third on the list with 9.5% of the global production.
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MARKET SHARE (CONSUMERS): China is the largest Palladium consumer with 31%, while Europe and North America (USA) hold 20% each. Japan stands at 11%.
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RUSSIA IS EXPECTED TO CUT PRODUCTION IN 2024: NORNICKEL, THE LARGEST PALLADIUM PRODUCER IN THE WORLD, TO CUT PRODUCTION IN 2024. The Russian miner said the output of the metal could fall almost 15% to as low as 2.3 million ounces. The company said that its production was down 17% year on year in Q4 of 2023.
NEWS:
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CHINA ANNOUNCED A NEW BIG STIMULUS PACKAGE TO SUPPORT THEIR ECONOMY: The Chinese Central Bank announced last week measures including cutting interest rates on mortgages, cutting the reserve requirement ratio for commercial banks and other stuff that could unleash around 14 billion dollars. The market also expects China to increase stimulus from the fiscal side, with measures that could unleash near 300 billion dollar of stimulus. All in all, China is on its way to inject the largest stimulus package since the Pandemic, worth more than 400 billion dollars.
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THIRD - LARGEST PALLADIUM PRODUCING COMPANY IN THE WORLD, SOUTH AFRICAN SIBANYE-STILLWATER, WILL REDUCE PALLADIUM PRODUCTION IN THE USA. Sibanye Stillwater Ltd. plans further restructuring at its mines in Montana (USA) that could cut output of palladium and platinum by as much as 45% in a bid to return them to profitability. The restructuring is likely to result in platinum and palladium production from the Stillwater assets in the US being reduced by approximately 200,000 ounces from 2025.
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(SEPTEMBER 11): RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN SAYS RUSSIA SHOULD CONSIDER LIMITING EXPORTS OF URANIUM, TITANIUM AND NICKEL IN RETALIATION FOR WESTERN SANCTIONS. In televised comments, he said such restrictions could also be introduced for other commodities, and noted that Russia was a major producer of natural gas, diamonds and gold. Russia is also the largest Palladium producer in the world (Source: Reuters).
EVENTS (USA):
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US NONFARM PAYROLLS AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (SEPTEMBER) (FRIDAY, OCTOBER 4 AT 13:30 GMT+1). US Unemployment rate is expected to come in at 4.2% as same as in August, but the Fed said that it could rise to 4.4% this year and 2025. This could further support market expectations that Fed could cut interest rates by another 50 basis points in November to 4.50%.
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US INFLATION (CPI) (SEPTEMBER) (THURSDAY, OCTOBER 10 AT 13:30 GMT+1). US Inflation has fallen to 2.5%, which is the lowest rate since 2021. US Federal Reserve expects consumer prices in the USA to continue falling in 2024, 2025 and 2026.
EVENTS (CHINA):
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SUNDAY, OCTOBER 13 AT 02:30 GMT+1: CHINA INFLATION (CPI) (PREVIOUS: 0.6% up from 0.5%)
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FRIDAY, OCTOBER 18 AT 04:00 GMT+1: CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (PREVIOUS: 4.5%)
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FRIDAY, OCTOBER 18 AT 04:00 GMT+1: CHINA GDP (Q3) (PREVIOUS: 4.7%)
PRICE ACTION:
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BREAKING: PALLADIUM HAS TESTED ITS LOWEST RATE SINCE JUNE 2017 (810.50) ON AUGUST 5, 2024. The price has since recovered by around 22%, trading currently around $990. However, it could also decline.
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PALLADIUM HAS MAINTAINED ITS STONG SUPPORT AROUND THE MARK OF $900. Palladium has tested the level near $900 ten times in 2024.
GRAPH (Daily): January 2024 – October 2024
PALLADIUM, October 1, 2024
Current Price: 990
|
PALLADIUM |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
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|
1300 |
|
|
1200 |
|
|
1100 |
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|
920 |
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|
910 |
|
|
900 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
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Profit or loss in $ |
31,000 |
21,000 |
11,000 |
-7,000 |
-8,000 |
-9,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
27,858 |
18,872 |
9,885 |
-6,291 |
-7,189 |
-8,088 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
23,191 |
15,710 |
8,229 |
-5,237 |
-5,985 |
-6,733 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
41,909 |
28,390 |
14,871 |
-9,463 |
-10,815 |
-12,167 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 08:00 (GMT+1) 01/10/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
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You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
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Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.