Palladium weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
PALLADIUM USE AND MARKET SHARE:
- Palladium is mostly used in catalytic converters by the car industry to reduce harmful gas emissions while tightening regulation is forcing automakers to put more Palladium into each vehicle, which in turn could keep the demand outlook positive. Palladium has also been used in fuel cells to generate power.
- MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): Russia is the largest producer holding 43% of the markets, while South Africa is the second largest with 33.00% of the markets. Canada is third on the list with 9.5% of the global production.
- MARKET SHARE (CONSUMERS): China is the largest Palladium consumer with 31%, while Europe and North America (USA) hold 20% each. Japan stands at 11%.
- RUSSIA IS EXPECTED TO CUT PRODUCTION IN 2024: NORNICKEL, THE LARGEST PALLADIUM PRODUCER IN THE WORLD, TO CUT PRODUCTION IN 2024. The Russian miner said the output of the metal could fall almost 15% to as low as 2.3 million ounces. The company said that its production was down 17% year on year in Q4 of 2023.
NEWS:
- BREAKING (OCTOBER 23): U.S. ASKS GROUP-7 TO CONSIDER SANCTIONS ON RUSSIAN PALLADIUM. According to Bloomberg, the US asked Group of Seven allies to consider sanctions on Russian palladium and titanium the Biden administration mulls fresh ways to squeeze President Vladimir Putin’s war machine. Biden administration officials floated the possibility during a meeting of G-7 deputy finance ministers on Tuesday (October 22) in Washington.
- CHINA ANNOUNCED A NEW BIG STIMULUS PACKAGE TO SUPPORT THEIR ECONOMY: The Chinese Central Bank announced last week measures including cutting interest rates on mortgages, cutting the reserve requirement ratio for commercial banks and other actions that could unleash around 14 billion dollars. The market also expects China to increase stimulus from the fiscal side, with measures that could unleash near 300 billion dollar of stimulus. All in all, China is on its way to inject the largest stimulus package since the Pandemic, worth more than 400 billion dollars.
- (SEPTEMBER 11): RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN SAYS RUSSIA SHOULD CONSIDER LIMITING EXPORTS OF URANIUM, TITANIUM AND NICKEL IN RETALIATION FOR WESTERN SANCTIONS. In televised comments, he said such restrictions could also be introduced for other commodities, and noted that Russia was a major producer of natural gas, diamonds and gold. Russia is also the largest palladium producer in the world (Source: Reuters).
EVENTS (USA):
- US NONFARM PAYROLLS AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (OCTOBER) (FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 1 AT 13:30 GMT+1). US Unemployment rate is expected stay above 4%, but the Fed said that it could rise to 4.4% this year and 2025. This should further support market expectations that Fed could cut interest rates by another 50 basis points in November to 4.50%.
EVENTS (CHINA):
- THURSDAY, OCTOBER 31 AT 02:30 GMT+1: CHINA MANUFACTURING PMI (PREVIOUS: 49.8 up from 49.1)
- SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 9 AT 02:30 GMT+1: CHINA INFLATION (CPI) (PREVIOUS: 0.4% down from 0.6%)
- FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 15 AT 04:00 GMT+1: CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (PREVIOUS: 5.4 up from 4.5%)
PRICE ACTION:
- PALLADIUM HAS TRADED 67% BELOW ITS ALL-TIME HIGH OF $3,409 (March 2022). Palladium currently trades around $1135, and if a full recovery follows then on can expect an upside of around 200%. The price, however, could also decline.
- BREAKING: PALLADIUM HAS TESTED ITS LOWEST RATE SINCE JUNE 2017 (810.50) ON AUGUST 5, 2024. The price has since recovered by around 40%, trading currently around $1135.
- SUPPORT AREA: $900 – $1,000. Palladium has since 2017 maintained a strong support area between $900 and $1,000.
PALLADIUM, October 24, 2024
Current Price: 1135
|
PALLADIUM |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1500 |
|
|
1350 |
|
|
1250 |
|
|
1050 |
|
|
1025 |
|
|
1000 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
36,500 |
21,500 |
11,500 |
-8,500 |
-11,000 |
-13,500 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
33,805 |
19,912 |
10,651 |
-7,872 |
-10,188 |
-12,503 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
28,185 |
16,602 |
8,880 |
-6,564 |
-8,494 |
-10,425 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
50,422 |
29,701 |
15,886 |
-11,742 |
-15,196 |
-18,649 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 08:00 (GMT+1) 24/10/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.